Counting cards is a practice used by certain players in casino games such as blackjack. The process itself involves mentally tracking dealt cards to give you a better idea of which ones remain in the deck. You can then adjust your bets and decisions accordingly.
However, does card counting work? And if it does, how does it work? Is it even legal, and what’s the casino’s stance on it? So many questions need answers, and we aim to cover them all in this article, so keep reading.
What is card counting?
Counting cards is a strategy players use to determine how likely the next hand is to favor them or the dealer. Primarily used in blackjack, one of the best online casino games for beginners, the technique usually involves tracking the number of high and low cards dealt and using the ratio to determine what’s more likely to happen in the following rounds.
You can use this information to increase or decrease your next bet or decide whether to hit or stand with more confidence.
Card counting was first developed by an American mathematics professor, Ed Thorp. He went on to publish a book, Beat the Dealer, about his mathematically proven card-counting method that lowers the house edge over time.
How does card counting work?
There are various methods for card counting, ranging from complex systems like Wong Halves and Zen Count to the simpler, more popular Hi-Lo strategy. We’ll focus on the Hi-Lo system to explain how card counting works.
Here, you assign a positive, negative, or zero value to cards based on the following system:
High cards (10, face cards, and Ace) are worth -1.
Low cards (2 – 6) are worth +1.
Middle cards (7, 8, and 9) are worth 0.
As the cards are dealt, you’ll add or subtract these values. You’ll need to keep track of all cards that appear at the table, not just your own. Let’s show you an example:
- • The player before you is dealt an Ace (-1) and a Queen (-1).
- • You’re dealt a 3 (+1) and a 4 (+1).
- • The dealer receives an 8 (0).
- • You Hit and get a King (-1) and Stand. The dealer Hits and gets 10 (-1).
Keeping track of these scores gives you an end total of -2 (-2+2+0-2). This gives you a better idea of how to act next. However, over such a short period, the count won’t be anywhere near a reliable indicator. Card counting only becomes effective over a longer series of hands, allowing patterns to emerge.
How do you implement card counting?
Here is the deal: when the tally is positive, more high cards are statistically left in the deck, and when the tally is negative, more low cards are statistically left. But how does this help?
A higher proportion of high cards is deemed more favorable for the player, making it a good time to increase your bet. You’ll have a greater chance of hitting blackjack, more opportunities to ‘double down’ and ‘split’ successfully, and a higher likelihood of the dealer going bust.
Conversely, more low cards benefit the dealer by helping them get closer to 21 without busting. This is especially useful when they have a stiff hand (12–16 points), as they must hit below 17 — making a low card draw potentially dangerous.
| Naturally, you don’t always have to follow this method to the letter. Still utilize blackjack strategy charts and adjust your decisions based on the current game situation. |
For example, let’s say the current count is +5, which suggests it’s better to be aggressive. However, you have a total of 12 in your hand, while the dealer’s upcard is a weak 3. The basic strategy says you should hit because the dealer has more permutations of beating your low tally.
Meanwhile, card-counting logic says you are more likely to draw a 10-value card since more are left in the deck. In other words, this suggests you should stand to avoid busting with 22.
In this case, the decision would be up to you personally. Some consider it wise to stick with blackjack strategy charts, as they offer a mathematically sound approach. Card counting is more about altering your bet size and less about making playing decisions.
However, others wouldn’t want to risk going Bust by drawing a 10, something which the dealer may do in any case with such a high card counting point tally.
How to win at blackjack after counting cards?
Let’s see how counting cards can help you make better-informed decisions when playing blackjack online.
Experts suggest that when the Hi-Lo count reaches +4 or higher, you can expect high cards (specifically 10-value cards) to be dealt next. In this scenario, certain actions to consider that go against the usual blackjack strategy are:
Split 10s instead of Standing – Usually, blackjack strategy tells you to keep your initial total of 20 and Stand. However, this may give you the opportunity to form two strong hands, each potentially reaching 20 or 21, to double your profit.
Stand on 15 or 16 vs. the dealer’s 10 – In normal circumstances, you’d expect to Hit in this situation. However, you don’t want to risk going Bust with more high cards waiting in the deck.
Stand on 12 vs dealer’s 2 or 3 – Again, the normal play is to Hit on a 12 tally against a low dealer card. However, there’s both a chance you or the dealer could go bust from this position, so Standing may be the best call.
Does card counting help you win at casinos?
Card counting in blackjack is designed to tip the house edge slightly in your favor in the long run. However, that doesn’t mean this technique guarantees winning.
Even with the perfect strategy, card counting will decrease the house edge by no more than 0.5%–1.5%.
In addition, you must learn to count cards effectively without making many mistakes. In other words, you need to memorize your preferred system and keep the count accurate over a sustained period of time.
Is counting cards illegal?
Card counting is not illegal in the US. However, many people mistakenly believe it is, mainly because land-based casinos can still remove you from their premises or ban you entirely if they think you’re counting cards and endangering their profits.
In other words, the venues have the right to ban or remove you because of card counting but not because the practice itself is illegal, which is an important distinction to remember.
It’s not really possible to outlaw card counting since you can’t prosecute a person for using their brain. Counting cards is just that: keeping track of the cards that have been dealt and nothing more.
That said, using any type of external device or working with partners to assist in the counting of cards would be considered cheating and, therefore, illegal.
Does card counting work at online casinos?
Card counting doesn’t work in virtual blackjack card games that use a random number generator (RNG) to produce results as they are simulated. However, it’s possible with live dealer titles since you’re effectively participating in a streamed live game in real-time.
Online casinos don’t have a way to determine whether or not players are counting cards like land-based casinos, so they take measures to reduce the effectiveness of the practice. Here are some of the steps they take:
Use of eight-deck shoes
Most modern blackjack games use eight decks in their shoes, while some might go a bit lower with six decks. As you can expect, the more decks there are, the harder it is to count cards.
Use of continuous shuffle machines
As the name suggests, these machines shuffle cards continuously, making it hard to count cards. Aside from the lack of order, old cards are constantly reintroduced to the machine, making counting virtually useless.
High deck penetration
Most live blackjack games have employees who constantly enter the frame to replace the decks being used. These are also previously shuffled behind the scenes, but even without this, it would be hard to keep count when cards are constantly being changed.
Conclusion
Card counting used to be a mathematical approach that could decrease the house edge in blackjack games. By using the game’s own mechanics to their advantage, skilled players could, with a dose of patience and luck, consistently turn a profit.
However, with the introduction of modern technologies and the prevalence of online gambling, card counting has become much harder and virtually impossible in games that rely on all the countermeasures described in this guide.
FAQs
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Can you even win if you count cards?
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References
– Can You Win with Card Counting? Myths and Realities (Cardsrealm)
– How Does Counting Cards in Blackjack Work? (Mental Floss)
– Top 5 Misconceptions about Counting Cards (Blackjack Apprenticeship)
– 6 Reasons Why You Should Never Count Cards (Casino.org)
– Does Card Counting in Blackjack Really Work? (Nerdly.co.uk)
– Why Card Counting Won’t Work in Online Casinos (The Sports Geek)
