Greece: Debt Sustainability Analysis in Full

Greece: Debt Sustainability Analysis in Full

Below is the latest IMF Greek sustainability report:

Few lines from the Analysis Doc.:

Since the fifth review, a number of developments have pointed to a need to revise the DSA. The 2011 outturn was worse than expected, both in terms of growth and the fiscal deficit; the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated significantly, due to events in Europe; the fiscal outlook has deteriorated due to the economy and due to delays in developing fiscal-structural reforms; and the strategy of the program has been adapted, to place greater emphasis on upfront actions to improve competitiveness (which will change the expected profile of the recovery and have implications for the fiscal accounts). The DSA also must be updated to include the envisaged PSI deal between the IIF-led creditor group and the Greek authorities
The assessment shows that, in a baseline scenario, public debt will decline to around 129 percent of GDP by 2020, staying above the 120 percent of GDP level targeted by European leaders in October. The results point to a need for additional debt relief from the official or private sectors to bring the debt trajectory down, consistent with the objective of achieving a 120 percent of GDP debt ratio by 2020. The results will need to be updated once information on additional debt-reducing actions is available.
Full Analysis in Scribd below:

Greece DSA

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