Birinyi Says S&P 500 Could Reach 3,200; Japan Analyst Calls For Dow 100k

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The S&P 500 could increase more than 50% from its current level to 3,200 points over the next two years, according to Laszlo Birinyi, the founder and president of Birinyi Associates.

During an interview with CNBC’s Fast Money: Half- Time Report on Tuesday, Birinyi explained, “Most people don’t realize that we are now in the second greatest S&P500 rally in the history, and we are actually ahead of the 1990 rally.”

He added that the S&P 500 could hit over 3,000 points by 2017 if the market continues to gain 11 basis points a day just like it did over the past six years. “What we’re really trying to tell people is to stay with it. Don’t let the bad news shake you out. There’s no reason why we can’t keep on going,” said Birinyi.

CNBC noted that the S&P 500 increased more than 50% over the past three years. The index gained almost 2% year to date.

Birinyi ignores global trends, critics say

Birinyi ignored the global trends that are happening such as the stock market crash in China and the impact of Greece’s situation in the European region, which made investors worried. He considered the events as “market noises.”

On the other hand, Bill Fleckenstein, a short seller told CNBC that the entire market is probably heading for calamity over the next few months. Fleckenstein correctly predicted the financial crisis in 2007, and nine out of the last five recessions.

But if you think Birinyi is bullish just wait till you hear this – and no it is not Jeremy Siegel. Two months ago an analyst at a Japanese firm, Musha Research, stated that the Dow could go to 100,000, and he has not affiliation with James Glassman either. Below is an excerpt from the report.

In Japan, we are witnessing the remarkable growth of an investment spectacle that involves many asset classes. People are concentrating solely on avoiding risk regardless of how high returns are on other investments. But this situation is about to change. The reason is that Abenomics is about to produce even more benefits. The policies of Abenomics are aimed at correcting mistaken asset valuations, returning financial markets to normal and ending deflation. Consequently, even in the United States, we will probably see the revival pf the Fed model and interest rate arbitrage in financial markets. However, these events will be much more dramatic in Japan.

In this environment, investors around the world will no longer be able to ignore the mispricing in Japan’s financial markets. After all, investors can borrow money in Japan at 0% to buy stocks. With leverage of 50 times, that means a 2% dividend yield is 50 times higher because the principal for a one-year investment is returned with no interest payments. If we factor in capital gains too, this becomes an unbelievably attractive opportunity for leveraged investments. This is the situation in Japan right now. Moreover, the yen’s decline means that investors can establish short positions in Japan, which is like creating liability positions. These positions can produce remarkable investment returns. Overseas investors are always stunned when I show them the graphs in Figures 21 through 24 and explain their significance. No one was aware that abnormal valuations have persisted in Japan for such a long time. Investors outside Japan had a vague sense of these low valuations. But the perception was merely that Japan would inevitably change because its unusually low long-term interest rates were caused by a bubble. Investors have not seriously considered all the implications. In fact, the same thing is happening in the United States, Europe and other developed countries. For these reasons, I believe that this is an enormous opportunity for investors. The likelihood of the Nikkei Average surpassing ¥40,000 and the DJIA in the United States surpassing $100,000 over the long term has come in sight.

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Birinyi on Apple selloff

Apple is Birinyi’s largest stockholding. During the interview, He expressed concern regarding the Apple sell-off. Yesterday, the shares of the iPhone maker traded below its 200-day moving average. The company lost almost 6% of stock value over the past five days.

According to him, he concerned about the recent selloff because he does not know what’s going on. Birinyi said he does not follow technicals, but it could be the reason for the decline of Apple’s stock price. He could not explain the cause of the decline.

Yesterday, BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk said Apple will recover from the decline, and believed that the company’s earnings will increase next year. He said,” If you believe that they can grow earnings 8% to 10% in the next fiscal year then the stock should be trading a lot higher.”

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