By: greenbackd Meb Faber’s World Beta has a great series of posts on Graham / Shiller PEs globally as at May 24: Meb says: If you look at the history of country CAPEs, they tend to bottom out in single digits around 7. […]
Author: Greenbackd
How to estimate the long-term return on stocks: What does the future hold?
By: Greenbackd Yesterday I looked at John Hussman’s method for estimating the long-term returns on stocks. The long-term return on a security consists of two parts: income (from dividends or interest payments), and capital gains (from price changes). For any future stream of […]
How to estimate the long-term return on stocks
By: Greenbackd There are a number of studies on the estimation of long-term returns to stocks. Ignoring the empirical research momentarily, the best explication of the estimation of long-term returns is by John Hussman in his article Valuations Matter. The logic […]
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Buffett buys newspaper division of Media General $MEG
By: Greenbackd I’ve been closely following on Greenbackd the Kinnaras stoush with the board of Media General Inc (NYSE:MEG) over the last few months. Kinnaras has been pushing the Board to “take advantage of the robust M&A market for both newspaper and broadcast television […]
Searching for Rational Investors In a Perfect Storm: Value Investing Through 1999-2003
By: Greenbackd Yesterday I covered a 2006 talk, “Journey Into the Whirlwind: Graham-and-Doddsville Revisited,” by Louis Lowenstein*, then a professor at the Columbia Law School, in which he compared the performance of a group of “true-blue, walk-the-walk value investors” and “a group of large […]
The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Revisited: Value Trounces Growth in Mutual Funds
By Greenbackd The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville is a well-known article (see the original Hermes article here.pdf) by Warren Buffett defending value investing against the efficient market hypothesis. The article is an edited transcript of a talk Buffett gave at Columbia University in 1984 commemorating the fiftieth […]
Dividend Yield Doesn’t Work, What Does? Three Key Conclusions
By: Greenbackd A recent study by Wes Gray and Jack Vogel, Dissecting Shareholder Yield, makes the stunning claim that dividend yield doesn’t predict future returns, but more complete measures of shareholder yield might hold some promise. Gray and Vogel say that, ”regardless of the yield […]
Man versus Magic Formula: Joel Greenblatt’s Value Investors’ Club vs his Little Book
By Greenbackd The only one fair fight in finance: Joel Greenblatt versus himself. In this instance, it’s the 250 best special situations investors in the US on Joel’s special situations site valueinvestorsclub.com versus his Magic Formula. Wes Gray and crew at […]
How To Beat Most Active Managers: A Performance Analysis of Fundamental Indexation With Different Price Ratios
By Greenbackd The rationale for a value-weighted index can be paraphrased as follows: Most investors, pro’s included, can’t beat the index. Therefore, buying an index fund is better than messing it up yourself or getting an active manager to mess it up for you. If you’re going […]
Why Does an Equal-Weighted Portfolio Outperform Market Capitalization- and Price-Weighted Portfolios?
By Greenbackd Yesterday I took a look at the different ways of structuring an index suggested by Joel Greenblatt. Greenblatt finds that an equal-weight portfolio far outperforms a market capitalization weight portfolio. And for good reason. Greenblatt says that market cap weighted indexes suffer […]