Many polls still show Joe Biden with a lead over President Donald Trump, but it’s getting harder and harder to make a prediction in the election. Biden’s lead over Trump is narrowing, and some polls are actually showing the incumbent president with a lead over his challenger.
Trump / Biden election predictions are biased
One of the big problems with making predictions about the Trump / Biden election is the fact that the media is so biased against Trump. The Democratic FiveThirtyEight is even disregarding the data entirely, claiming that there is little evidence that Trump is eating into Biden's lead.
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If you look elsewhere at other sources, you do see reports that the president is indeed reducing his challenger's lead, which highlights just how biased some sources are, running against the actual data. Even some liberal media outlets are admitting that Biden's lead over Trump is narrowing.
However, the vast majority of predictions for the Trump / Biden race give the election to Biden.
Another way to make a Trump / Biden election prediction
One thing polls aren't taking into consideration is Trump's approval rating. If we use that as a proxy to make our Trump / Biden election prediction, it looks like the president could pull out a win. Rasmussen Reports polled Americans on their approval of Trump's performance and found that the nation is split when it comes to strongly approving or disapproving.
Forty percent strongly approve of Trump, while 40% strongly disapprove of him. However, when you look at total people approving or disapproving, which presumably includes those who somewhat approve or disapprove, it looks like the president could win the election.
According to Rasmussen, 52% total approve of Trump, while 47% disapprove of him.
Trump needs to win Florida
It's also important to look at the swing states when it comes to making a Trump / Biden election prediction. There are certain states each candidate must win in order to guarantee a victory for them. For example, Trump will probably have to win Florida, among other states, to retain the presidency.
One of the keys to winning Florida will be the Hispanic vote there, and signs suggest that Trump could indeed win the state, especially if he dominates among Hispanics. According to Politico, Trump is ahead of Biden among Hispanics in Florida with 71% to Biden's 23%.
Republicans have emphasized the parts of Biden and running mate Kamala Harris' campaign that suggest they are socialists. Florida has large numbers of Hispanics from Cuba, Columbia, Nicaragua and Venezuela, and most of them have lived through the horrors of socialism in their native countries.
However, Florida is no slam dunk for Trump. A separate poll by Univision indicated that Biden is actually beating Trump in the Hispanic vote in Florida at 57% to Trump's 37%. Another poll from CBS News Battleground indicated that Biden was leading Trump by 27 points among Floridian Hispanics.
Will there be a repeat of 2016
One thing everyone should be asking themselves about is just how reliable polls are in making a prediction in the Trump / Biden election. In 2016, polls generally pointed to a Hillary Clinton win, but that's not what ended up happening. Thus, we should strongly question just how reliable the polls are when it comes to making an election prediction.
While Trump lost the popular vote, he did win the Electoral College, which is why he entered the White House. A few polls are now looking at the Electoral College alongside the popular vote, presumably for that very reason. However, even those polls suggest a Biden win in the presidential election.
It's safe to say that whatever happens, the presidential election will be close. Last year has demonstrated that the polls are not really reliable sources to be used in making a prediction in the Trump / Biden election.