Home Politics NJ adult-use marijuana legalization to ignite domino wxonomixeffect

NJ adult-use marijuana legalization to ignite domino wxonomixeffect

Will NJ adult-use marijuana legalization domino to northeast states? Projected $400M in first year sales

Billions of dollars of market opportunities hang in the balance as voters in 5 states consider ballot initiatives on Nov 3 – Arizona (adult-use), Mississippi (medical), Montana (adult-use), New Jersey (adult-use), and South Dakota (simultaneous legalization of medical and adult-use).

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Will New Jersey's Adult-Use Marijuana Legalization Ignite A Domino-Effect?

A recreational marijuana industry in New Jersey itself – with a population of nearly 9 million people – would reach $850 million-$950 million in sales a year by 2024, according to a Marijuana Business Daily projection.

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CHART: Adult-use marijuana legalization in New Jersey expected to ignite domino-effect.

“But that’s not all: Approval is expected to cause a domino effect along the Eastern Seaboard and inland, creating an adult-use marijuana region that is among the biggest in the world,” reports Jeff Smith for Marijuana Business Daily.

“The population of four states that have been discussing adult-use legalization – New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Rhode Island – totals 37 million, more than quadruple the number of people who reside in New Jersey.”

map of marijuana ballot initiatives

CHART: States with Legalization on the Ballot and Potential Sales. (Details to be updated until Election day as new polling data and other relevant info becomes available.)

More About New Jersey

Background: Residents are being asked to legalize a commercial recreational marijuana program that eventually is expected to become a multibillion-dollar-a-year industry. A successful initiative is almost sure to spur New York, Pennsylvania and other neighboring states to similarly legalize.

Ballot measure: Public Question 1, recreational marijuana

Sponsor: State Legislature put the initiative on the ballot

Population: 8.9 million

Projected first-year sales: $375 million-$400 million

Projected 2024 sales: $850 million-$950 million

Key Business Factors:

  • Lawmakers and regulators would decide on the number and type of marijuana business licenses available, but existing MMJ operators would likely get first crack at the recreational market.
  • Adult-use products would face a 6.625% sales tax.
  • Municipalities could pass ordinances to charge local taxes of up to 2%.

Projected first-year sales: $375 million-$400 million

Projected 2024 sales: $850 million-$950 million

Key Business Factors:

  • Lawmakers and regulators would decide on the number and type of marijuana business licenses available, but existing MMJ operators would likely get first crack at the adult-use market.
  • Adult-use products would face a 6.625% sales tax.
  • Municipalities could pass ordinances to charge local taxes of up to 2%.

Likelihood of Passage: Residents favor the legalization proposal by a margin of 68% in favor and 26% against with 6% unsure, according to a July poll commissioned by the cannabis law practice of Brach Eichler and conducted by DKC Analytics.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver