Biden / Trump Prediction: Polls Tighten Donald Headed To Stunning Victory?

The election is only a week away, and Joe Biden / Donald Trump predictions are changing almost daily. For weeks, it looked like Biden would take the presidency away from Trump, but things are starting to change now as more and more polls show Trump with a slim lead over Biden.

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Nationwide Biden / Trump prediction has split view

There are many polls being released every day now, some of which focus on individual states, while others focus on the entire country. Rasmussen Reports' poll focuses on all of the U.S., and it found this week that Trump is just a nose ahead of Biden with 48% to Biden's 47%. Of note, last week, Biden was ahead of Trump with 49% to Trump's 46%, so the prediction is starting to swing the other way as the election nears.

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On the other hand, an average of polls captured by RealClearPolitics suggests Biden has a solid lead across the country, although his lead is slimmer in the swing states. Now let's take a look at some of the key battleground states to see where the two main presidential candidates stand.

Georgia

A Biden/ Trump prediction for Georgia puts Biden in the lead at 51% for Trump's 46%, based on a poll from Civiqs. However, RealClearPolitics has Trump with a slim lead of 0.4 percentage points.

Of note, Georgia hasn't voted Democrat since the 1992 election when Bill Clinton beat President George H.W. Bush. According to Fox News, the Biden campaign sees an opportunity as turnout among black voters increases and voters in suburbs of Atlanta switch from Republican to Democrat.

Florida

A poll conducted by The Trafalgar Group puts Donald Trump in the lead with 48.4% of the vote and Joe Biden with 46.1% of the vote. Florida is a swing state because it doesn't typically vote one way or the other, but during elections when the race was close, Republicans have typically pulled ahead, according to the BBC.

Additionally, in two of the last three times the Democrats have lost Florida in the presidential election, the state made the difference between winning and losing the White House. The one exception was in 2016 when Trump lost the popular vote but won the White House due to electoral votes.

Michigan

The Trafalgar Group shows Trump with a very slim lead over Biden at 46.5% to 45.9%. However, FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a comfortable 53% to 45% lead over Trump on a SurveyMonkey poll and a 51% to 42% lead in a You.gov poll.

Fox News reports that Trump has a campaign stop in Michigan today. He defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by taking Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is an interesting state as far as Biden / Trump predictions go right now because there are several conflicting polls. FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a comfortable lead over Trump in the polls. Ipsos' poll shows Biden over Trump at 53% to 44%. It's a similar story on Survey Monkey (55% to Trump's 43%) and You.gov (51% to Trump's 43%).

However, TopTradeGuru reports that the polls are wrong, based on early ballot data. Almost 1.3 million votes have been cast in early voting in Wisconsin, and Trump is ahead with 42% of the vote to Biden's 36%. Nearly half of Wisconsin's ballots have already been cast.

What also makes the state interesting is the fact that Democrats have been voting early in larger numbers than Republicans. If Republican voters turn out in force on election day, it means Trump will easily take Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania

According to FiveThirtyEight, Civiqs has Biden ahead of Trump with a 52% to 45% split. Other polls for Pennsylvania show Trump over Biden at 48% to Biden's 46% (InsiderAdvantage) and Biden over Trump again at 52% over Trump's 46% (SurveyMonkey).

Four years ago, the polls underestimated Trump's supporters in Pennsylvania. Trump won by 0.7 percentage points after trailing Biden before the election. The polls ended up being off by 4.4 points in the state.

Ohio

The Ohio Biden / Trump prediction shows the president with a slim lead over his opponent in some polls. According to FiveThirtyEight, SurveyMonkey shows Trump over Biden with 51% to Biden's 47%. A poll from OnMessage also shows Trump with a narrow lead over Biden at 48% to 47%.

Trump easily won Ohio in 2016. Traditionally, the state has been a key deciding collection of votes in all but four elections since after the Civil War, including in all elections since 1963, according to Al Jazeera. Ohio voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 but supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

North Carolina

FiveThirtyEight mixed results in the polls in North Carolina. He leads in a SurveyMoney polls (52% to Trump's 46%) and You.gov poll (51% to Trump's 47%). However, a poll from The Trafalgar Group shows Trump over Biden (49% to 46%).

Republicans have dominated in North Carolina historically, having won the state in almost every election starting in 1968. However, the state supported Obama in 2008 when he just barely defeated John McCain with less than one percentage point of difference. Trump won North Carolina in 2016, beating Clinton by 3.6%.

Arizona

Polls in Arizona are mostly either very close or a tie, according to FiveThirtyEight, although there is one poll in which Biden has a comfortable lead (SurveyMonkey has Biden at 53% and Trump at 46%). In Susquehanna Polling and Research's poll, Trump is just barely beating Biden at 47% to Biden's 46%. Basswood Research's poll shows an even split at 48% each.

Traditionally, Arizona has voted Republican in presidential elections, other than Bill Clinton's win in 1996. Trump beat Hillary Clinton there in 2016 by 3.5%.

Iowa

According to FiveThirtyEight, this race is pretty much neck and neck. SurveyMonkey shows a tie at 49% each, while Opinion Insight's survey shows Biden ahead with 47% to Trump's 45%.

Iowa went to Trump in 2016 by almost 9.5%, marking a swing of 15 points from 2012 when the state voted for Obama.

Electoral votes in the Biden/ Trump election

Whatever happens on election day, it's clear that it will be a close race. It's possible that once again, the Democrats will win the popular vote, while Trump takes the Electoral College. This is why the swing states listed above are so important. Those with more electoral votes are more important than those with fewer votes.

The Guardian collected the number of electoral votes for each of the swing states:

  • Florida – 29
  • Pennsylvania – 20
  • Ohio – 18
  • Michigan – 16
  • North Carolina – 15
  • Arizona – 11
  • Wisconsin – 10
  • Iowa – 6