Pandemic, Election May Scare Away Consumers This Halloween

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Pandemic, Election May Scare Away Consumers This Halloween
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MUNCIE, Indiana – From a pandemic changing social habits to a highly controversial presidential race, this Halloween retail season “may be the most unpredictable one in recent memory,” said Steve Horwitz, an economics professor at Ball State University.

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“There are a variety of factors creating a high degree of uncertainty about what consumers are likely to do,” Horwitz said. “To the extent that the economy remains slow and that unemployment remains fairly high, that would suggest a sluggish holiday retail season.”

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He points out that the recently-released annual survey by the National Retail Federation found about 148 million U.S. adults plan to participate in Halloween-related activities this year—down from the 172 million in the 2019 survey. And those planning to celebrate by trick-or-treating this year dropped to 23% from 29% in 2019.

New Guidelines For Celebrating Halloween

Another factor in celebrating Halloween this year are new guidelines issued by the Centers for Disease and Control (CDC) that recommend against trick-or-treating and holiday-themed parties and hayrides.

“So much depends upon the state of public health and the political decisions that surround it that it’s hard to know which of the forces in play might dominate,” Horwitz said. “About the only thing that we can say with certainty is that whatever Americans do spend on this holiday season, it’s more likely to be done online than in years past. This is because how much more comfortable people are with doing so and how many more firms are offering multiple options for delivery and pick-up. This will certainly be the case if people are still worried about traveling and gathering in person, and decide instead to ship holiday gifts to family and friends.”


About Ball State University 

Founded in 1918 and located in Muncie, Ball State University is one of Indiana’s premier universities and an economic driver for the state.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver
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