Reasons why you may still get a coronavirus stimulus check

There is no coronavirus relief package yet even though millions of Americans are eagerly awaiting stimulus checks. Despite more than two weeks of negotiations, the White House and Democrats have failed to reach a consensus. Even though there are no real signs of a bill anytime soon, the fact is that the bill isn’t dead. There are still a few reasons that make us believe you may still get a coronavirus stimulus check.

Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Why you may still get a coronavirus stimulus check

The first reason is that both sides, the White House and Democrats, have expressed intentions to resume talks.

Michael Mauboussin: Challenges and Opportunities in Active Management And Using BAIT #MICUS

michael mauboussin, Credit Suisse, valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, decision making, skill versus luck, value investing, Legg Mason, The Success Equation, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, analysts, behavioral finance, More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, academics , valuewalkMichael Mauboussin's notes from his presentation at the 2020 Morningstar Investment Conference, held on September 16th and 17th. Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Michael Mauboussin: Challenges and Opportunities in Active Management Michael Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global in New York. Previously, he was Director of Research BlueMountain Capital, Read More


Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Fox News on Tuesday, "I think it's time for everybody to get back to the table and let's get a deal done."

On Tuesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also indicated a willingness to resume negotiations on the next relief package.

"Democrats remain ready to return to the table," Schumer said. "We need Republicans to join us there."

Despite the intentions, we haven’t yet seen any serious talks on the relief package.

Another reason to to expect us to get another coronavirus stimulus check is that politicians need to do something before heading into the election. Trump, McConnell and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are all up for reelection this fall. They know very well that coming up with a stimulus package could help them ensure another term in office.

Trump’s executive orders do not serve a purpose

Trump’s executive order is another reason why you may get a coronavirus stimulus check. After the talks failed last week, Trump signed executive orders to defer student loan payments, enact a payroll tax cut, provide extra unemployment benefits, and extend eviction protections.

However, Trump’s executive action misses many important things, such as stimulus checks, aid for local and state governments, food assistance, funds for testing, tracing and treatment of COVID-19, liability protection, and more.

In addition to missing important provisions, the executive orders could take weeks to implement. This is because it is not yet clear if Trump has the authority to carry out such monetary orders without approval from Congress.

Authority over federal spending rests with Congress. Thus, many believe that Trump lacks the power to issue executive orders over how funds should be used during the coronavirus pandemic. It is possible that the orders will face legal challenges, which may further delay benefits for Americans.

However, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said that people can expect to get the benefits of the orders "within the next week or two.”

Further, Trump’s executive orders do not take a definitive stance on relief aid. Rather, they leave the onus of action on others. For instance, the orders do not renew a moratorium on evictions but instead leave the decision on Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield.