November 23, 2020 Update: The Nikkei 225 Index has been surging higher, and Credit Suisse analysts say it’s on course to reach their objective of 26,745 or 26,750. They note that the Nikkei broke above several major resistance levels, starting at the downtrend from October 2018 up to the 2018 high at 24,450.
Credit Suisse remains bullish on the index at 26,745, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1989 to 2008 bear market. They see the next price resistance levels just above 27,250 and 27,270. They then look for that the cap a fresh consolidation phase. Support moves to 25,215 initially, followed by 23,925 or 23,900.
Overall, the Credit Suisse analysts see no reason not to expect that any pullback from 26,750 or 26,720 to be a temporary correction. They expect an eventual break to open the door to a move to set the next resistance at 32,115 or 32,120, which would be the 78.6% retracement of the 1989 to 2008 bear market.
Nikkei 225 Index faces strong resistance, unable to break free
October 23, 2020 Update: The Nikkei maintained its small bull triangle, and Credit Suisse analysts believe the index may test its long-term resistance at 23,920, which is the potential downtrend from the high in 2018 before the 2019 highs at 24,090 and 24,115. Finally, they see a test of the 2018 high at 24,450, although they expect that to remain a strong barrier.
In order for the triangle to be negated, the Nikkei would have to close below 22,950 and reenter a ranging environment.
Nikkei 225 Index maintains bull triangle under long-term resistance
September 24, 2020 Update: Credit Suisse analysts say the Nikkei 225 Index is remaining capped at its long-term resistance levels of 24,000 or 24,450. They said the index is maintaining its bull triangle and that they wouldn’t rule out a test of the long-term resistance levels starting at 23,940, which is the potential downtrend from the 2018 high, before the 2019 highs at 24,090 and 24,115. Finally, they would see a retest of the 2018 high at 24,450, but they expect that level to remain “a formidable barrier.”
They add that a close below 22,595 is needed to see the triangle negated and a “ranging environment” return.
Nikkei 225 Index could retest 24,000 level
August 21, 2020 Update: The Nikkei 225 Index rallied to its highest level in months recently, continuing to climb alongside other major stock indices around the globe. Technical analysis suggests the index could once again challenge the 25,000 resistance level.
The Nikkei was up a fraction of a percent when the Japanese market closed on Friday. The index has been consolidating around 23,000 after closing a key price gap in daily trading. A breakout above 23,300 could trigger a retest of the 2020 high, which is around 24,100. If the index can break above 24,400, the next resistance level will be 25,200.
Nikkei 225 index: What is it and how you can invest?
Japan is one of the world’s largest economies, and home to some of the world’s biggest corporations. Tokyo Stock Exchange is where giants like Toyota, Honda, Sony, and SoftBank are listed. And Nikkei 225 (INDEXNIKKEI: NI225) is the proprietary index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
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Nikkei 225 index (INDEXNIKKEI: NI225) is often seen as an indicator of Japan’s economic health. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has more than 2,200 listed stocks with a combined market capitalization of $5.6 trillion.
Nikkei 225: A price-weighted index
The Nikkei 225 index (INDEXNIKKEI: NI225) was introduced in 1950 as part of Japan’s industrialization and rebuilding program after the Second World War. It was originally administered by the Tokyo Stock Exchange itself, but the newspaper group Nikkei took over the index in 1970.
It reflects the performance of 225 largest blue-chip stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The value of the index is calculated in real time and updated every 15 seconds.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and FTSE 100 are all market capitalization-weighted indices. In these indices, the companies with a higher free float market cap have a greater weightage. But Nikkei 225 (INDEXNIKKEI: NI225) is a price-weighted index instead of market cap-weighted.
In Nikkei 225, the constituent stocks are given weightage based on their share price instead of market capitalization. The higher priced stocks have more weightage. The stock prices are denominated in Japanese yen. Fast Retailing (TYO: 9983) is the company with the highest weightage on the index.
The constituents of the index are reviewed every September, when stocks are added or removed based on their share price. The changes take effect in October every year.
Historical performance
The Japanese economy witnessed a massive bubble in the 1970s and 1980s amid rapid economic expansion. Real estate prices in Tokyo were touching the sky. The Nikkei 225 index hit an all time high of 38,916 points. The stock market crashed when the bubble burst. Even after more than three decades, the index currently trades at around 20,000 points.
The index may never touch the 1989 high, but that shouldn’t turn off investors. What matters for investors is the entry point. The index has been doing pretty well since 2012.
How can you invest?
Many Nikkei 225 constituents have their American Depository Receipts (ADRs) listed on the US exchanges, which you can buy. But if you want to invest in the Nikkei 225 index as a whole, the best way is to invest through an index fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF).
One of the most popular index funds tracking the Nikkei 225 is the Daiwa Japan Nikkei 225 Index Fund, which has an expense ratio of just 0.16%. Nomura Asset Management offers the Nikkei 225 Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). BlackRock Japan also has the iShares Core Nikkei 225 ETF.
But all these are yen-denominated funds trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. If you want to invest in a dollar-denominated ETF trading on the New York Stock Exchange, MAXIS Nikkei 225 Index ETF is the way to go.
