Vitaliy Kin, senior analyst at International investment firm, EXANTE says;
Markets are in for a further shock as the second round of Wuhan Coronavirus is set to hit China, according to our sources in Hong Kong. It has spread from China to Europe and back to China again. Italy has not reached its peak, but we believe this will happen by the end of this week.
Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
A lot of cities in China are still in lockdown or partly shut down. People are still unable to return to work and some do not want to go back due to the perceived high risk. It’s said that 80 per cent of the Chinese workforce have returned to work, but our sources think this is questionable.
Covid-19 Has Reached Its Peak?
If a production line has four major sections, say section A has 80 per cent of people back to their post, section B has 70 per cent, section C 50 per cent, and section D, 20 per cent, the production rate can only be calculated by the lowest rate, which is 20 per cent as only 20 per cent of production can be completed. So when they say the highest rate is 80 per cent, it’s misleading, as it’s the last 20 per cent which is the problem.
Additionally, a lot of medium-term production has moved to Japan and Korea, which are also affected by Covid-19. Infection here has reached its peak we feel and will begin to improve in coming weeks.
With most of Europe in shut-down trade borders will be closed, including those with Africa, Asia, and America. This is worrying.
We wonder why Beijing is trying to distract attention by claiming that the whole World owes Wuhan a thank you for shutting down the city to ‘save the World’. There are even false reports claiming that the virus came from the USA. Could China be panicking that it’ll never regain its reputation? Or is it trying to save face?
The numbers are misleading
Also, thanks to a reliable source we now believe that the numbers have been greatly concealed and misreported. They say that outside Wuhan there is zero infection because they want workers go back to their post. Whilst Hong Kong and Taiwan have been the best at putting in place anti-virus processes they still have several infections per day. Therefore, our estimate is that there are several hundred new cases per day – not zero!
When on 23rd January they shut-down Wuhan City, the official infection number was 47, but some doctors in Wuhan said it should be 90,000 and another even said 250,000. No one can confirm. But it’s definitely more than 47! It is impossible to shut-down a large city due to only 47 cases!
Markets
As a result, the price of gold has fallen due to weak consumer confidence.
Chinese production which has temporarily been moved to Korea and Japan has also been suspended now, as both are affected. The world’s borders are closing – making trading impossible. This is a huge blog to China and the rest of the World.
All major countries are in great shut-down. Only small countries in Africa and South America are operating at 90 per cent production.
The best healthcare
The three places which have the lowest death rate in the world also have the most ICU beds, showing a correlation with healthcare availability and survival rates.
The winners
Two places in Asia which have benefited are Vietnam and Taiwan. Apple has moved its production to Vietnam, with iPhone production increasing by 38 per cent and production overall up 23 per cent in the country.
