Reduced confidence on making household purchases

Stakeholder Approach OCC Comptrollerproposed CRA rule Mangrove Partners Long Term Investments .INX replicated in the public marketsGoumbik / Pixabay

WASHINGTON, DC American consumer confidence, as measured by the Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index, is at 62.9 for the month of February 2020. This represents a 0.5 point reduced confidence decrease from last month.

Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Two of the PCSI sub indices show small declines from last month, including Current and Investment. However, the Expectations and Jobs sub indices show slight improvements.

"While consumer confidence is slightly lower than this time last month, it is still much stronger than this time last year," reports Chris Jackson of Ipsos. "Americans' confidence in the economy appears to remain, though its possible that concerns about global markets and the spread of the coronavirus may have dampened this optimism slightly."

Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Refinitiv, said,"Likewise, retailers are concerned about store closures in China related to the coronavirus outbreak. To date, retailers have discussed the coronavirus in 28 earnings calls and are telling us that its it is very challenging to predict how long the outbreak will last and quantify its damage. As a result, retailers are also warning us not to expect much from them in the upcoming quarters. There has been more negative than positive EPS and revenue preannouncements for Q1 2020."

Current: Reduced Confidence On Being Able To Make Household Purchases

reduced confidence

The PCSI Current Condition Index shows a decrease of 1.6 points since last month (currently at 54.8), but an increase of 3.8 points compared to a year ago. This month, the Current Index is driven by consumers' current reduced confidence on being able to make major and regular household purchases, and their rating of their personal financial situation.


reduced confidence

The PCSI Expectations Index is slightly up by 0.8 of a point this month (currently at 68.4), and 2.6 points against last year. Consumers are less worried about losing their jobs as a result of economic conditions this month than they were last month.



The PCSI Investment Index is down 1.7 points from last month to 55.4, but shows a 3.1 point increase from last year. Consumers are less comfortable making major and regular household purchases than last month.



The PCSI Jobs Index is up 1.0 point against last month.

Currently standing at 75.3, the Jobs Index score has increased by 5.0 points compared to a year ago. This month, consumer perceptions of job security have remained the same, and this month shows slightly decreased levels of experience of and concern about of job loss.

About the Author

Refinitiv, formerly the Financial & Risk business of Thomson Reuters, is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. Serving more than 40,000 institutions in over 190 countries, we provide information, insights, and technology that drive innovation and performance in global markets. Our 160-year Reuters heritage of integrity enables customers to make critical decisions with confidence, while our unique open platform, best-in-class data, and cutting-edge technology bring greater opportunity to our customers. By advancing our customers, we drive progress for the entire financial community. For more information, go to