Consumer perceptions of job security has improved

WASHINGTON, DC American consumer confidence, as measured by the Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index, is up to 63.4 for the month of January 2020. This represents a 1.2 point increase from last month as job security perceptions increased.

job security

The PCSI sub indices shows a general increase across all four indices: Current, Expectations, Investments, and Jobs.

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Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

"The job market ends 2019 with missed expectations; however, the low and steady unemployment rate appears to have bolstered consumer confidence in the United States," reports Chris Jackson of Ipsos. "Americans' current confidence in the economy improves in the first month of the year through a greater sense of job security, as well as renewed optimism in the strength of our personal finances."

Job security and other data

Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Refinitiv, said, “January marks the last month of the retailers’ fourth quarter earnings cycle. As the quarter comes to a close, the Refinitiv Same Store Sales Index is looking for a 2.4% SSS Q4 2019 growth vs. 4.1.% SSS in Q4 2018. This suggests that consumer spending was healthy during the holiday season, and bodes well going into 2020."

Current

Refinitiv

The PCSI Current Condition Index shows an increase of 1.3 points since last month (currently at 56.4), and 1.9 points compared to a year ago. This month, the Current Index is driven by consumers' current confidence on being able to make major purchases.

Expectations

job security

The PCSI Expectations Index is up by 1.2 points this month (currently at 67.6), and 1.2 points against last year. Consumers are more optimistic about the future strength of their local economies and personal finances over the next six months.

Investment

Refinitiv

The PCSI Investment Index sees an increase this month. Climbing to 57.1, the Investment Index score improved by 1.5 points since last month, and by 2.2 points since last year. Consumers are more comfortable making a major purchase today than they were a month ago.

Jobs

Refinitiv

The PCSI Jobs Index is up 1.1 points against last month. Currently standing at 74.3, the Jobs Index score has increased by 1.5 points compared to a year ago. This month, consumer perceptions of job security has improved; however, this month reports unchanged levels of experience with job loss.



About the Author

Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver