U.K. Government downplays Brexit; China wants more talks

The King Report October 15, 2019 Issue 6113

On Friday, stocks rallied on reports that there was a path to a Brexit deal and a limited US-China trade pact would be announced.  On Monday, reports turned those hopes into illusions. PS – ESZs on Sunday initially ignored this: EU Says Johnson’s Brexit Plan Not Good Enough Ahead of Summit – BBG

downplays Brexit

Foto-Rabe / Pixabay

2:09 ET: Pound Drops From Three-Month High on Brexit Deal Reality Check

The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told envoys on Sunday that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proposals for breaking a deadlock over the Irish border risked leaving the bloc’s single market vulnerable to fraud, officials said…

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Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-14/pound-drops-from-three-month-high-as-doubts-arise-on-brexit-deal

5:19 ET: China Wants More Talks before Signing Trade Deal with Trump

China also wants Trump to scrap a planned tariff hike in December in addition to the hike scheduled for this week, something the administration hasn’t yet endorsed…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-14/china-wants-more-talks-before-signing-trump-s-phase-one-deal

U.K. Government Downplays Brexit as Queen Reopens Parliament

British government uses Queen’s speech to push election messages

Brexit was mentioned only in passing by the Queen as the Conservative Party looked to present a heavily domestic agenda, focused on greater spending on policing and health care, to showcase what would happen if the U.K. leaves the EU on Oct. 31. Leaving the EU on that date “has always been” the government’s priority, she said in a speech written for her by Mr. Johnson’s government

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-government-plays-down-brexit-as-queen-reopens-parliament-11571054349?mod=e2tw

After peaking at 2982.50 at 21:00 ET, ESZs tumbled to 2953.75 at 5:43 ET on the Brexit and China news.

Mnuchin surfaced to perform damage control and verbal intervention to boost stocks.

  • 8:03 ET: Mnuchin: China Phase-1 Deal Is Quite Substantial – BBG
  • 8:04 ET: Mnuchin: We Will Be Working Closely with China to Sign Deal – BBG
  • 8:06 ET: Mnuchin: If No China Deal, Dec.15 Tariffs Will Go into Effect - BBG
  • 8:11 ET: Mnuchin: Deputy-Level Trade Calls with Chins this Week - BBG

8:13 ET: U.S., China Have ‘Fundamental Agreement’ on Trade, Mnuchin Says [8:13 ET]
“I expect there will be a deal,” Mnuchin said Monday on CNBC television. The sides made “substantial progress” last week in negotiations and Mnuchin said he expects President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to finalize the accord at a summit in Chile next month…

Mnuchin repeatedly said on CNBC that the countries have a “fundamental agreement” even though the wording and details are still to be worked out…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-14/u-s-china-have-fundamental-agreement-on-trade-mnuchin-says

Equity bulls were elated with the developments on Monday.  The prospect of innumerable rallies on ‘optimism’ of a ‘Phase-1’ trade pact could keep generating rallies.

Phase-1 of the Mnuchin rally on Monday ended one minute after the NYSE open.  ESZs hit 2969.

After vacillating for thirty minutes, ESZs jumped to a barely positive reading of 2971.50 at 10:09 ET.  ESZs and stocks quickly reverted to vacillating in a modest range.  The small-range vacillation continued, but at a slightly lower level, from midday until 14:00 ET.  Then, ESZs went into a 2-handle trading range until a modest retreat appeared during the final hour arrived.

@RyanDetrick: With 20 minutes to go [Monday], S&P 500 has traded in a range of only 0.33%. This would be the second smallest day all year (7/15/19 is the smallest). [Big ESZ swings occurred at night]

@bespokeinvest: Today was the lowest volume full trading day since December of 2017, and the lowest SPY volume day since November 2017.

Positive aspects of previous session

Mnuchin prevented stock decline by issuing more hype & hope on China trade pact

Negative aspects of previous session

Brexit angst has returned

The US-China Phase-1 trade pact has not been completed

Ambiguous aspects of previous session

The Fed is in some stage of panic over something that is not entirely clear.

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]

First Hour Down; Last Hour Down

Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 2972.84; 2962.94

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 2967.31

Trump halting trade negotiations with Turkey, raising its steel tariffs to 50%

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/trump-halting-trade-negotiations-with-turkey-raising-its-steel-tariffs-to-50percent.html

Today – Q3 earnings season commences, led by a slew of big bank results.  Expected: JNJ 2.00, UNH 3.76, BLK 6.97, JPM 2.46, GS 4.86, C 1.95, WFC 1.18, JBHT 1.45, UAL 3.96

Traders want to manipulate ESZs and stocks higher to squeeze call options that expire on Friday.  Barring shockingly negative news, traders will buy dips and play for an expiry-aided rally.  The winds of expiration upward bias and earnings reporting season are at their backs – as is the hurricane force wind of the Fed’s [Don’ call it QE] QE 4.0.

ESZs are +6.25 at 21:00 ET on the usual nighttime buying and the hope of a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside.  Will volume return after Columbus Day?  If not, investors are rejecting this level for stocks.

The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2936; 100-day MA: 2932; 150-day MA: 2912; 200-day MA: 2856

The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,455; 100-day MA: 26,465; 150-day MA: 26,337; 200-day MA: 25,981

S&P 500 Index support: 2963, 2955, 2940, 2930-34, 2922, 2907, 2900, 2880, 2870-75, 2854-60

Resistance: 2972-75, 2985-87, 2993, 3000, 3008, 3014

Expected economic data: Oct Empire Mfg 1.0; Bullard in London 4:25 ET, Atlanta Fed Prez Bostic 9:00 ET, SF Fed Prez Daly 15:30 ET

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames

Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal

Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 2823.03 triggers a sell signal

Daily: Trender and MACD are negative - a close above 2998.28 triggers a buy signal

Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative - a close below 2945.99 triggers a sell signal

On Sunday, Maria Bartiromo reiterated that her sources told her Horowitz’s report would be released on Friday.  We noted last week that a good source told us the IG’s report would be delayed a few weeks at Durham’s request.  Last night @MariaBartiromo: UPDATE: IG report NOT out this Friday 10/18.  Classifications being made.  Likely end of month. 

Our source told us last night that Durham is removing info that could compromise his criminal cases.

ABC News Busted Using Gun Range Footage to Report Turkish 'Slaughter' Of Kurd Civilians
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/abc-news-busted-using-gun-range-footage-report-turkish-slaughter-kurdish-civilians

@JackPosobiec: @ABC has deleted their debunked war propaganda after they were exposed claiming gun range footage [in Kentucky!] was an attack on the Kurds.  How did this happen? Did ABC vet their footage before claiming a war crime had occurred? We deserve answers

Veritas Strikes Again: Exposes CNN's 'Anti-Trump Crusade', Zucker's 'Personal Vendetta' Against Trump - In 2017, a producer was caught on tape admitting that the Trump-Russia story was nothing more than a ratings grab by Jeff Zucker, and the narrative is "mostly bull$#it."… During the same series of releases, CNN host Van Jones called the Russia story a "big nothing burger."…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/okeefe-strikes-again

@RealSaavedra: New leaked video from inside CNN: President Jeff Zucker tells employees to push "impeachment" and that all of CNN's stories should be about "moves towards impeachment"
One of CNN's employees says Zucker has a "personal vendetta against Trump"

@JamesOKeefeIII: "I'm just surprised @CNN hasn't been able to take down @realDonaldTrump yet" - … "I mean, I feel like they're trying..." - @CNN Media Coordinator Nick Neville

"There's nothing we can do if Zucker wants impeachment every single day to be the top story...He wants impeachment...Above all else!" - @CNN Media Coordinator Christian Sierra

"Our Democratic interviews are like softballs compared to the Republicans" - @CNN  Media Coordinator Christian Sierra

Inside the media’s relentless crusade to destroy President Trump by Kimberley Strassel [of WSJ]
This media war is extraordinary, overt and increasingly damaging to the country…The election of Donald Trump has led to the greatest disintegration of press standards in modern history…

What has defined the media breakdown that started in 2016 was the press’ abandonment of standards in aid of peddling a narrative — rather than reality. This abandonment has had terrible consequences for the industry and for the country. A Monmouth University poll in early 2018 found that a whopping 77 percent of Americans believe traditional TV and newspaper outlets report “fake news.”…

For those worried about our increasingly polarized society, the media is feeding that divide.

https://nypost.com/2019/10/13/inside-the-medias-relentless-crusade-to-destroy-president-trump/

Judicial Watch’s @TomFitton: @JudicialWatch investigates allegations U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, at direction of Obama holdover Amb. Yovanovitch, monitored, contrary to law, social and other media statements on "Biden" and "Soros," among other terms, by @RealDonaldTrump family/allies.

The latest list of those allegedly targeted for illegal monitoring by ousted Obama holdover Amb to Ukraine [and recent Schiff witness]: @JackPosobiec, @DonaldJTrumpJr, @IngrahamAngle, @seanhannity, @McFaul, @dbongino, @RealSaavedra, @RudyGiuliani, @SebGorka, @jsolomonReports, @LouDobbs, @PamelaGeller, @SaraCarterDC

@BreitbartNews:  “Let them have their borders,” Trump said, referring to Turkey, “But I don’t think that our soldiers should be there for the next 50 years guarding a border between Turkey and Syria when we can’t guard our own borders at home.”

@realDonaldTrump: Some people want the United States to protect the 7,000 mile away Border of Syria, presided over by Bashar al-Assad, our enemy… Syria and whoever they chose to help, wants naturally to protect the Kurds.  I would much rather focus on our Southern Border which abuts and is part of the United States of America. And by the way, numbers are way down and the WALL is being built!

@AnnCoulter: Reminder for Americans listening to the hysteria about our beloved allies, the Kurds, on the Sunday political shows: ISIS poses zero danger to you.  Immigrants have killed at least 80,000 Americans since 2001.

@realDonaldTrump: Europe had a chance to get their ISIS prisoners, but didn’t want the cost. “Let the USA pay,” they said.  Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved. Easily recaptured by Turkey or European Nations… but they should move quickly. Big sanctions on Turkey coming! Do people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey? Never ending wars will end!

After Obama and Hillary tried to overthrow Syrian despot Assad by covertly running weapons through Benghazi (2011 - 2012) to anti-Assad groups, Putin vowed that Russia would do what’s necessary to keep Assad in power.  Obama backed away from direct action; but he and his cohorts did engineer the removal of the Russia-friendly President of Ukraine.  Putin then invaded Eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea (Feb 2014).  These events are the basis and cause of much of the political turmoil that has occurred in the US - the quest to remove Trump to prevent exposure of past wrongdoing - over the past three years.

A major benefit of the removal of US troops from Syria: Turkey is now aligned against Syria and Russia.

@realDonaldTrump: Adam Schiff now doesn’t seem to want the Whistleblower to testify. NO! Must testify to explain why he got my Ukraine conversation sooo wrong, not even close. Did Schiff tell him to do that? We must determine the Whistleblower’s identity to determine WHY this was done to the USA.  Democrat’s game was foiled when we caught Schiff fraudulently making up my Ukraine conversation, when I released the exact conversation Transcript, and when Ukrainian President and the Foreign Minister said there was NO PRESSURE, very normal talk! A total Impeachment Scam!

Ex-Rolling Stones reporter Matt Taibbi: We're in a permanent coup

On Thursday, news broke that two businessmen said to have “peddled supposedly explosive information about corruption involving Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden” were arrested at Dulles airport on “campaign finance violations.”

Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman will be asked to give depositions to impeachment investigators. They’re reportedly going to refuse. Their lawyer John Dowd also says they will “refuse to appear before House Committees investigating President Donald Trump.” Fruman and Parnas meanwhile claim they had real derogatory information about Biden and other politicians, but “the U.S. government had shown little interest in receiving it through official channels.”…

This latest incident, set against the impeachment mania and the reportedly “expanding” Russiagate investigation of U.S. Attorney John Durham, accelerates our timeline to chaos. We are speeding toward a situation when someone in one of these camps refuses to obey a major decree, arrest order, or court decision, at which point Americans will get to experience the joys of their political futures being decided by phone calls to generals and police chiefs

My discomfort in the last few years, first with Russiagate and now with Ukrainegate and impeachment, stems from the belief that the people pushing hardest for Trump’s early removal are more dangerous than Trump… Many Americans don’t see this because they’re not used to waking up in a country where you’re not sure who the president will be by nightfall. They don’t understand that this predicament is worse than having a bad president. 

The Trump presidency is the first to reveal a full-blown schism between the intelligence community and the White House… The agencies’ new trick is inserting themselves into domestic politics using leaks and media pressure… The real problem would be the precedent of a de facto intelligence community veto over elections, using the lunatic spookworld brand of politics that has dominated the last three years of anti-Trump agitation.

CIA/FBI-backed impeachment could also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If Donald Trump thinks he’s going to be jailed upon leaving office, he’ll sooner or later figure out that his only real move is to start acting like the “dictator” MSNBC and CNN keep insisting he is. Why give up the White House and wait to be arrested, when he still has theoretical authority to send Special Forces troops rappelling through the windows of every last Russiagate/Ukrainegate leaker? That would be the endgame in a third world country, and it’s where we’re headed, unless someone calls off this craziness. Welcome to the Permanent Power Struggle.   https://taibbi.substack.com/p/were-in-a-permanent-coup

Democracy Dies in Darkness: Adam Schiff Just Banned a GOP Lawmaker from Attending Key Ukrainegate Deposition

Several officials told The Federalist that they believe Fiona Hill, who was subpoenaed last week to share her knowledge of allegations of wrongdoing against Trump regarding a phone conversation he had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25, is one of the unnamed sources for the anti-Trump whistleblower whose August 12 complaint fanned congressional impeachment fires…

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/14/democracy-dies-in-darkness-adam-schiff-just-banned-a-gop-lawmaker-from-attending-key-ukrainegate-deposition/

Democratic Rep. Van Drew opposes impeachment. He'll tell you he's on the 'right side of history.'

Trump carried New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

"Where are we going to be when it's all done?” "Further divided, more hateful, more distrustful, with the same president and the same presidential candidate. What have we accomplished?”…

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/democratic-rep-van-drew-opposes-impeachment-he-ll-tell-you-n1065301

Bernie Sanders slams Elizabeth Warren as ‘capitalist’ [Progressives’ new pejorative]

“There are differences between Elizabeth and myself,” Sanders said during an interview Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “Elizabeth I think, as you know, has said that she is a capitalist through her bones. I’m not.”…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dividing-lines-bernie-sanders-slams-elizabeth-warren-as-capitalist

Joe Biden has removed a safety net for himself as well as Teams Obama and Hillary.

Biden says he wouldn't pardon Trump if elected president

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/465663-biden-says-he-wouldnt-pardon-trump-if-elected-president

Mike Bloomberg keeps talking to allies about running for president as Joe Biden struggles against Elizabeth Warren - “Bloomberg is in if Biden is out,” says one source…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/bloomberg-signals-he-would-run-for-president-if-biden-struggles-against-warren.html

 



About the Author

Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver