The King Report October 11, 2019 Issue 6111
Wednesday night trading in ESZs was wicked. The SCMP report that the Chinese delegation would leave on Thursday pushed ESZs to a 36 handle decline. Then a CNBC report said the WH is denying the SCMP report. ESZs rallied sharply. Then Fox Business said Chinese sources claim the delegation will leave early. So, ESZs plunged again. Then ESZs rallied to a small gain on this report last night:
The U.S. is weighing a currency pact with China as part of a partial deal.
ADW Capital’s 2020 letter: Long CDON, the future Amazon of the Nordics
ADW Capital Partners was up 119.2% for 2020, compared to a 13.77% gain for the S&P 500, an 11.17% increase for the Russell 2000, and an 8.62% return for the Russell 2000 Value Index. The fund reports an annualized return of 24.63% since its inception in 2005. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Read More
It could also see a tariff increase next week suspended, sources say. More
It’s been a crazy 12 hours for US-China trade news
The South China Morning Post reported Wednesday night that the high-level talks would only take place Thursday. Stock futures plunged overnight on the report.
However, a White House spokesman later told CNBC’s Kayla Tausche the South China Morning Post’s report was inaccurate. Futures recovered slightly on this.
A principal in the negotiations also told CNBC that the schedule around the U.S.-China trade talks had become “fluid,” with Friday’s session being an “open question.”
Futures recovered a good chunk of their losses after Bloomberg News reported the U.S. was thinking about suspending a tariff increase in exchange for a currency pact.
A New York Times report also said the Trump administration plans to allow the sale of some supplies to Huawei, which also helped investor sentiment.
ESZs and stocks rallied on Thursday after Trump tweeted that he planned to meet with China Vice Premier Liu at the White House on Friday.
@realDonaldTrump: Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House.
Fed’s Kaplan Says Not Sure Economy Can Avert Severe Slowdown
“I think we’re in a fragile period in here, which is why I am glad the Fed has taken some action in July and September,” Kaplan said Thursday in an interview… on Bloomberg Television. “But I think this could go either way. We can avert a more severe slowdown, but I think the jury is out right now.”…
US manufacturing entering a ‘golden era’ under Trump, says auto parts billionaire and NFL owner
- U.S. manufacturing has “never been better,” says Shahid Khan, owner of auto parts supplier Flex-N-Gate [Pakistani immigrant, U of Illinois Engineering College graduate]
- “We’re entering the ... golden area for American manufacturing right now,” he says.
- Khan adds the manufacturing sector has received a boost from President Donald Trump…
- “I’ve been in an auto parts factory for 50 years. Times in the U.S. have never been better,”…
Over the past four weeks, the Fed’s balance sheet has jumped to $3.95 trillion from $3.77 trillion (5%).
US September CPI is unchanged m/m; +0.1% was expected. Core increased 0.1%; 0.2% was expected. A 1.6% m/m decline in used vehicle prices is the reason for the tad lower CPI than expected. Where is the inflation from the US tariffs on China? Bueller, Bueller, Bueller
Positive aspects of previous session
Rally on Trump’s trade talk hype
Negative aspects of previous session
No energy, rally solely due to Trump’s BS
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What will the Fed do if stocks keep falling while they cut rates? QE 4?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]
First Hour Up; Last Hour Up
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 2948.46; 2917.12
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 2934.57
Apple removes police-tracking app used in Hong Kong protests from its app store
NBA Security Confiscates Pro-Hong Kong Signs, Ejects Fans As National Anthem Plays In the Background
CNN reporter gets shut down by Rockets PR staffer for asking All-Stars James Harden and Russell Westbrook about ongoing friction between the NBA and China over Houston exec's support for Hong Kong protesters
For about three years, some NBA superstars and top head coaches have regularly slammed Trump. Now?
Joe Biden worked with whistleblower when he was vice president, officials reveal
Biden was President Barack Obama’s "point man" on Ukraine, making a half dozen trips there in his eight years as vice president…
Per a very good source, Horowitz’s report will be delayed two to three weeks in order to remove some information at the request of Durham.
30 minutes after the close on Thursday: Trump says China trade talks are going very well
Today – The market expects the US and China to agree to a very minor trade deal. The odds of a big deal are remote for the reasons reported over the past few months. Therefore, the biggest risk today for stocks is on the downside: The talks terminate with no agreement.
The small risk is that after a minor but innocuous deal is announced, there is a surge due to algo and lemming buying; but a reversal materializes quickly.
Be alert for the late Friday rally that tends to precede expiry week. Traders want to get long for the usual upward manipulation to squeeze expiring call options.
Q3 earnings results commence next week. Usually, stocks rally before earnings results appear. So, traders want to be long. However, institutional investors are concerned about soft results.
We are still in the Groundhog Day of trading patterns punctuated with news and tweets. ESZs spiked to 2957.50, + 16.50, due to Trump’s tweet that trade talks are going well. ESZs are +5.75 at 22:00 ET.
The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2935; 100-day MA: 2930; 150-day MA: 2910; 200-day MA: 2851
The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,444; 100-day MA: 26,446; 150-day MA: 26,321; 200-day MA: 25,943
S&P 500 Index support: 2930-34, 2922, 2907, 2900, 2880, 2870-75, 2855-60, 2851 (200 DMA), 2835
Resistance: 2955-60, 2965, 2975, 2985-87, 2993, 3000, 3008, 3014
Expected economic data: Sept Import Prices unch m/m, ex-Petro -0.1% (where’s the tariff inflation?), Exports -0.1%; UM Sentiment 92, Current Conditions 109, Expectations 82.5; Minny Fed Prez & uber-dove Kashkari 8:00 ET, Boston Fed Prez Rosengren 13:15 ET; Dallas Fed Prez Kaplan 15:00 ET
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 2823.03 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative - a close above 2998.28 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive - a close below 2912.53 triggers a sell signal
Newly declassified court documents reveal FBI FISA violations in targeting Americans
The newly released decisions came after FISC Judge Rosemary Collyer’s 2017 ruling, which found that officials under the Obama administration used FISA to conduct illegal surveillance of American citizens for years… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newly-declassified-court-documents-reveal-fbi-fisa-violations-in-targeting-americans
James Clapper: Obama Ordered Us to Start the Witch Hunt [Clapper with Nuremberg Defense?]
James Clapper, Obama’s Director of National Intelligence, told CNN’s Jim Sciutto that President Obama was the one who directed the deep state to “assemble all the reporting” about Russia meddling in the 2016 election… https://thegreggjarrett.com/james-clapper-obama-ordered-us-to-start-the-witch-hunt/
John Solomon @jsolomonReports: Congressman Nunes just told @seanhannity he has evidence suggesting a State Department official may have been monitoring the communications of multiple journalists. [ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch?]
Fired Anti-Trump Ukrainian Ambassador Was Monitoring Communications of John Solomon and US Journalists Prying into Ukraine! - Last week House Democrats called in fired US Ambassador Marie Yovanovich to testify in their sham impeachment proceedings…
Ambassador Yovanovich is a noted Trump-hater who blocked Ukrainian officials from traveling to the United States to hand over evidence of Obama misconduct during the 2016 election to President Trump. Yovanovich was US ambassador to Ukraine during the 2016 election when the Ukrainian government was colluding with the DNC and Hillary Campaign to undermine the US presidential election. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenkoko told journalists in March that Yovanovitch gave him a “do not prosecute” list during their first meeting…
Fox ran a bogus poll yesterday that showed 51% want Trump impeached and removed from office; 4% want him impeached but remaining in office and 40% do not want him impeached.
Trump campaign dismisses 'garbage' poll from Fox News on impeachment
Nearly half of the sample is Democrat (48%). Only 40% Republican & 12% Independent. Independents OPPOSE impeachment & removal by 47-39, but they are greatly underrepresented in this poll.
This poll is meant to create public opinion, not measure it!
Gallup: As of October 2017, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 24% identified as Republican, and 42% as Independent.
@realDonaldTrump: From the day I announced I was running for President, I have NEVER had a good @FoxNews Poll. Whoever their Pollster is, they suck. But @FoxNews is also much different than it used to be in the good old days. With people like Andrew Napolitano, who wanted to be a Supreme Court Justice & I turned him down (he’s been terrible ever since), Shep Smith, @donnabrazile (who gave Crooked Hillary the debate questions & got fired from @CNN), & others, @FoxNews doesn’t deliver
FOX News Plays Trick… – Oversamples Democrats by 14 POINTS in Junk Impeachment Poll
Some people are blaming new board member Paul Ryan but is that really fair? Rush Limbaugh warned about FOX News Channel’s turn against President Trump just last week...
OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: Here's a real fact: your network hired Braun Research - which means you hired Hillary Clinton's 2016 regional campaign manager in PA to do a poll!
Here's what is happening: Paul Ryan at Fox News hires a polling firm run by liberal activists. They call many Dems & very few Republicans. Liberal media puff up the phony poll numbers non-stop. GOP senators say "Trump's numbers are bad." It's cover for GOP to impeach Trump.
1776Stonewall: The on-air talent at Fox News should consider going somewhere else, and let the liberal Murdoch kids and the Paul Ryan RINO's on the board go down with the ship…
Flashback to DEC 2017: 58 Dems Vote to Impeach Trump for Criticizing NFL Anthem Protesters
A few days ago, Giuliani said ‘watch Romania’ in regard to Biden corruption.
Attorney General William P. Barr Invites Romanian Minister of Justice Ana Birchall for Meeting in September - The Attorney General and Minister Birchall first met in June in Bucharest, Romania, where Minister Birchall hosted the U.S./EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministerial, during the Romanian Presidency of the Council of the European Union…
CBS: MBNA Paid Biden's Son As Biden Backed Bill August 25, 2008
A son of Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden was paid an undisclosed amount of money as a consultant by MBNA, the largest employer in Delaware, during the years the senator supported legislation that was promoted by the credit card industry and opposed by consumer groups…
2 men with ties to Giuliani arrested [SDNY] on campaign finance charges, bond set at $1M
Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, two Soviet-born businessmen based in Florida, have been charged with four counts, including conspiracy to commit campaign finance fraud, false statements to the Federal Election Commission, and falsification of records. Both Parnas and Fruman have been tied to the work done by the president's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, in Ukraine where Giuliani has had significant business interests… https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/men-ties-giuliani-arrested-campaign-finance-charges-florida/story?id=66181930
Foreign Campaign Contributions: The Scandal Democrats Don’t Want Any Media to Talk About
A man who engineered an illegal contribution from a foreigner to a joint fundraising committee for President Barack Obama in 2012 was sentenced to four months in prison on September 30… Attorney John Azzarello, representing Argeros, said his client was acting on behalf of a candidate for prime minister of Albania who wanted a photo taken with Obama.
Turkey and the Kurds: It’s More Complicated Than You Think
Where to begin?... There is no Kurdish territory. There is Syrian territory on Turkey’s border that the Kurds are occupying — a situation that itself serves to “inflame and complicate” the region for reasons I shall come to. Ethnic Kurds do not have a state. They live in contiguous parts of Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. Most are integrated into these countries, but many are separatists.
The Kurds have been our allies against ISIS, but it is not for us that they have fought. They fight ISIS for themselves, with our help. They are seeking an autonomous zone and, ultimately, statehood. The editorial fails to note that the Kurds we have backed, led by the YPG (People’s Protection Units), are the Syrian branch of the PKK (the Kurdistan Worker’s Party) in Turkey. The PKK is a militant separatist organization with Marxist-Leninist roots… The PKK has a long history of conducting terrorist attacks, but their quarrel is not with us. So why has our government designated them as terrorists? Because they have been fighting an insurgent war against Turkey for over 30 years. Turkey remains our NATO ally, even though the Erdogan government is one of the more duplicitous and anti-Western actors in a region that teems with them…
Without any public debate, the Obama administration in 2014 insinuated our nation into the Kurdish–Turk conflict by arming the YPG… Our intervention in Syria has never been authorized by Congress… We are grateful for what the Kurds did in our mutual interest against ISIS. We should try to help them, but no one wants to risk war with Turkey over them. The American people’s representatives never endorsed combat operations in Syria, and the president is right that the public wants out…
Ret. Army Col. @KurtSchlichter: NARRATOR: Turkey is an ally by treaty ratified by the Senate. No American elected representative in the Senate has voted to ratify a treaty stating that America will go to war to defend the Kurds in a border dispute with Turkey. *PS: The Narrator prefers the Kurds.
NBCU Cable Networks Refuse to Air Trump Campaign Ad Aimed at Joe Biden - Commercial, rejected by CNN last week, alleges Democratic candidate promised Ukraine $1 billion to fire prosecutor
“Our ads are 100 percent accurate,” said Tim Murtaugh, a Trump campaign spokesman. “The discussions with NBC had nothing to do with the facts as presented in the ad. We have no further comment on those conversations.”
NBC News chief Andy Lack was ‘unrelenting’ when pursuing female employees: report