Musk goosed Tesla’s stock by leaking Tesla’s estimate unit sales

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Anton Wahlman on Tesla’s estimate unit sales for Q3.

estimate unit sales

dominickvietor / Pixabay

Musk goosed Tesla’s stock last week by leaking that he hoped the company would book sales of over 100,000 cars in Q3.

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Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

I asked Anton Wahlman for his thoughts on this and he replied:

My 97,000 estimate from a long time ago looks like it will end up fairly close to the end result, as it looks like 101,000 in total for the company (all models, all geographies).

In Q3 Tesla benefitted from initial Model 3 sell-in quantities to right-hand-drive markets (UK, Australia, New Zealand, etc.) as well as the EV incentive from the Netherlands being reduced after December 31, so those sales will likely decline by as much as 99% come January 1. It's hard to tell when the market will discount these phenomena, if at all – or if nothing gets discounted until each situation is reported, after the fact, cold turkey.

The stock could advance if the company prints any tiniest amount over what they did last quarter (95,400 units), but keep in mind that margins/profitability is a different matter altogether. It could retreat (materially) if the bottom line is no good, but we won't know this until 3-4 weeks thereafter. And who knows what we’ll find in the 10-Q, which usually comes out five days after the financial report.

Here’s my breakdown of estimate unit sales by month, model, and country:

Europe Jul Aug Sep Q3 2019
Model 3 3458 5417 17617 26492
Model S 546 595 1130 2271
Model X 383 478 1010 1871
TOTAL 4387 6490 19757 30634
N AMERICA Jul Aug Sep Q3 2019
Model 3 14558 14150 22250 50958
Model S 1125 1200 1300 3625
Model X 1375 1975 1875 5225
TOTAL 17058 17325 25425 59808
ASIA Jul Aug Sep Q3 2019
Model 3 1185 1957 4600 7742
Model S 320 303 560 1183
Model X 550 502 770 1822
TOTAL 2055 2762 5930 10747
TOTAL 23500 26577 51112 101189

And for the Model 3 alone, here is the breakdown (real and estimated numbers):

Model 3 Jul Aug Sep Q3 2019
Germany 454 356 1300 2110
Norway 308 649 2339 3296
Netherlands 590 1180 5778 7548
France 304 214 1062 1580
Switzerland 186 108 500 794
Belgium 112 172 455 739
Austria 111 83 338 532
Italy 132 71 325 528
Finland 54 50 126 230
Spain 87 63 228 378
Portugal 88 52 300 440
Luxembourg 26 15 100 141
Sweden 453 148 716 1317
Denmark 102 96 437 635
Ireland 0 0 13 13
UK 440 2082 3500 6022
Other Euro 11 78 100 189
EUROPE 3458 5417 17617 26492
EV Blogspot 3478 5286
TMC Euro 3458 5518
Carsalesbase 3441
USA 13450 13150 20250 46850
Canada 1108 1000 2000 4108
N AMERICA 14558 14150 22250 50958
Australia 0 500 1500 2000
New Zealand 3 57 300 360
China 1182 1400 2800 5382
ASIA 1185 1957 4600 7742
TOTAL 19201 21524 44467 85192
EV Blogspot 19057 21336



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Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver