The King Report October 1, 2019, Issue 610
ESZs peaked on their Sunday night opening at 2980.25 due to the report that the Trump administration has not yet decided to restrict capital flows into Chinese stocks.
ESZs tumbled to 2965.50 at 18:38 ET (38 minutes after open) probably because “60 Minutes” aired an impeachment special featuring Schiff and Pelosi. Two hours later, ESZs were at 2978 because the impeachment special was not only a dud, Pelosi incriminated herself in a possible conspiracy.
Seth Klarman: Investors Can No Longer Rely On Mean Reversion
"For most of the last century," Seth Klarman noted in his second-quarter letter to Baupost's investors, "a reasonable approach to assessing a company's future prospects was to expect mean reversion." He went on to explain that fluctuations in business performance were largely cyclical, and investors could profit from this buying low and selling high. Also Read More
@paulsperry_: Speaker Pelosi may have blown Democrats' chances of successfully prosecuting President Trump with a statement she made during her interview with CBS' "60 Minutes" last night
Pelosi said she knew what was in the Zelensky phone call prior to Trump’s release of the transcript. Realizing her incriminating admission, Pelosi tried to recover by stating ‘it was in the public domain’.
Anyone with de minis sense knows confidential presidential phone calls are not in the public domain.
@60Minutes: “60 Minutes” has obtained a letter that indicates the government whistleblower who set off the impeachment inquiry of President Trump is under federal protection because they fear for their safety
Whistleblower attorney @MarkSZaidEsq: 60 Minutes completely misinterpreted contents of our letter, which is now published online at https://compassrosepllc.com/intelligence-community-whistleblower-matter/ …Nor have we, as we stated earlier today, reached any agreement with Congress on contact with the whistleblower. Discussions remain ongoing.
ESZs then chopped in a modest range until they tumbled to a new session low of 2964.50 at 9:00 ET because Trump happens.
@realDonaldTrump: “After many years, the United States is finally waking up to Beijing’s plans and ambitions to pass us as the dominant economic & military superpower in the 21st Century. What’s happening now is that the U.S. is finally responding (thank you President Trump). This is taking place in TRADE, it’s taking shape in Military Competition.” Johnathan Ward… China expert. We are winning, and we will win. They should not have broken the deal we had with them. Happy Birthday China
The NY Fed accepted $63.5B of securities for its overnight repo operation on Monday. The general collateral overnight repo rate fell to 2.20% from 2.7%/2.5% after the operation. The NY Fed has reduced its overnight repo limit to $75B starting today.
ESZs rallied into the NYSE open because most of the Street wanted stocks higher to embellish Q3 reports cards. Then, ESZs and stocks, thanks to algos and lemmings, soared on this redundant report:
Peter Navarro: Reports that US would restrict Chinese companies are ‘fake news’
“Referring to Bloomberg News, which first reported on the potential restrictions… It was really irresponsible journalism and the problem we have here ... these bad stories push out the good,” he added… https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/peter-navarro-reports-that-us-would-restrict-chinese-companies-were-fake-news.html
ESZs and stocks rallied until ESZs rolled over into the VIX Fix. The modest 4-handle ESZ decline ended when ESZs entered a tight three-handle trading range until ESZs fell during the last hour of trading.
Gold tumbled over 2% on Monday for two primary reasons: 1) China is closed for Golden Week. Chinese investors have been huge buyers of gold; and 2) to boost Q3 performance for gold shorts.
Traders and money managers, eager to game Q3 performance, ignored the troubling September Chicago PMI, which fell to 47.1 (Contraction below 50) from 50.4 in August. 50 was expected.
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019
The current 2019 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast is stronger than the one from June (2.4 percent vs. 1.8 percent), as 2019:Q2 real GDP growth was higher than expected. The model attributes this faster-than-projected growth to a productivity boost, the result of both temporary and more persistent factors. The latter lift the model’s projections through the remainder of the forecast horizon…
Positive aspects of previous session
Long, intractable Q3 performance gaming rally until the afternoon
Negative aspects of previous session
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How many times can the MSM and Dems cry wolf on impeachment?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]
First Hour Up; Last Hour Down
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 2983.85; 2967.07
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 2975.89
Today – The intractable rally from 9:00 ET until the afternoon was largely Q3 performance gaming. Normally, the first day of a new month rallies on buying from indexers and institutions. However, the first day of October has been down for 8 of the past 13 years. Fervid manipulation to game Q3 performance leaves many buyers sated and many traders long
The S&P 500 Index had an Inside Day on Monday. So, we have this highly unusual sequence: Inside Day on Thursday; negative Outside Day on Friday and a positive [up for day] Inside Day on Monday.
This action strongly suggests the stock market is coiling for a significant move.
China’s markets are closed from October 1 to October 7 for Golden Week. ESZs are +9.00 at 21:00 ET.
The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2949; 100-day MA: 2924; 150-day MA: 2902; 200-day MA: 2835
The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,574; 100-day MA: 26,392; 150-day MA: 26,289; 200-day MA: 25,820
S&P 500 Index support: 2975, 2965, 2955-60, 2946, 2940, 2930, 2922, 2914, 2900, 2880, 2870
Resistance: 2985-87, 2993, 3000, 3008, 3017-22, 3027, 3040, 3050
Expected economic data: Markit Sept US Mfg PMI 51; Sep ISM Mfg 5.1, Prices Paid 50.5; Aug Construction Spending 0.4% m/m; Sept Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.0m; Chicago Fed Prez Evans in Frankfurt 3:15 ET, Fed VCEO Clarida 8:50 ET, Fed Gov Bowman 9:30 ET
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
- Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal
- Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 2823.03 triggers a sell signal
- Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative - a close below 2951.31 triggers a sell signal
- Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2960 triggers a sell signal
On Monday afternoon, the Deep State and its MSM allies went into panic mode over what Barr and Durham have uncovered. A series of seemingly coordinated stories tried to besmirch Barr/DJT.
Another Deep State leak of Trump’s phone calls: Trump Pressed Australian Leader to Help Barr Investigate Mueller Inquiry’s Origins… according to two officials with knowledge of the call…
@GeorgePapa19: I have been right about Downer from the beginning. A wannabe spy and Clinton errand boy who is about to get exposed on the world stage. Great reporting, NYTs! Mifsud is next.
Australian government statement within 1 hour on NYT report: “The Australian Government has always been ready to assist and cooperate with efforts that help shed further light on the matters under investigation. The PM confirmed this readiness once again in conversation with the President”
No crime except for the people that leaked the story. Plus, Trump pushing Australia about Australia/Downer’s role in Spygate was reported months ago.
May 24, 2019 Trump ‘Hopes’ Barr Scrutinizes British and Australian Role in ‘Hoax’ Investigation
BBG @business: 3:53pm Giuliani subpoenaed by House in impeachment inquiry
4:04pm Pompeo took part in Trump-Zelensky phone call: DJ
4:17pm Trump pressed Australian leader to help investigate Mueller inquiry's origins: NYT
5:16 ET ABC News: Barr asked Trump for introductions to Italy, Australia in Russia probe review
As a part of his review of the origins of the investigation into members of President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign, Attorney General William Barr asked President Trump on several occasions to initiate introductions between him and the leaders of Australia and Italy, among other countries, a Department of Justice official with direct knowledge of the calls told ABC News on Monday. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/barr-asked-trump-introductions-australia-italy-review-russia/story
5:38 ET WaPo: Attorney General William Barr said to have urged foreign governments to aid probe of CIA, FBI activities related to 2016 election - Barr has traveled overseas to seek help with a Justice Department inquiry that President Trump hopes will discredit U.S. intelligence agencies' examination of Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to people familiar with the matter…
@JordanSchachtel: Another piece specifically designed to delegitimize the results of AG Barr's investigation into the origins of the Trump-Russia hoax
WSJ’s @KimStrassel: As for "discrediting," this story is part of a growing campaign by media/Democrats to discredit Barr, Durham, Horowitz, and any DOJ effort at getting the truth of 2016. Gotta wonder why everyone is so scared of those findings....
Note what NYT is doing here--trying to suggest questions about 2016 are beyond the pale. Since when is getting to the truth a "personal political interest"? They loved it when Mueller was investigating 2016; but now want all further queries to stop.
Letter from Australian Official Emerges That Casts Doubt On Report from New York Times
The letter, reported by Nine News Australia’s Kerrie Yaxley, is dated May 28, 2019, from Australian Ambassador Joe Hockey to Barr, and states: I refer to President Trump’s announcement on 24 May that you will investigate the origins of the Federal Bureau of Investigations probe into Russian links to the 2016 US election...
The Australian Government will use its best endeavors to support your efforts in this matter. While Australia’s former High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, The Hon. Alexander Downer, is no longer employed by the government, we stand ready to provide you with all the relevant information to support your inquiries... https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-letter-from-australian-official-emerges-that-casts-doubt-on-new-york-times-report/
@realDonaldTrump: Rep. Adam Schiff illegally made up a FAKE & terrible statement, pretended it to be mine as the most important part of my call to the Ukrainian President, and read it aloud to Congress and the American people. It bore NO relationship to what I said on the call. Arrest for Treason?
Did The Inspector General’s Office Help the ‘Whistleblower’ Try to Frame Trump?
The ‘whistleblower’ was not acting alone, and members of the intelligence community inspector general’s office were likely providing an assist in the hoax attempt to bury President Trump…
If, prior to this charge against Trump, the ICIG refused to accept complaints based on second-hand information, but altered its procedure to trigger the ICWPA for the president, that is a huge scandal and implicates many besides the so-called whistleblower…
Dr. Steve Pieczenik, former CIA Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under five different administrations, shared the following in an urgent message to President Trump calling the current events “nothing more than a disguised coup by the CIA… There is no such thing as good Samaritan or whistleblower at the CIA. He should be fired and brought up for treason as well as any of the analysts.”…
OAN’s @JackPosobiec: To be clear: Adam Schiff's intel staffer held a secret meeting with the Biden-tied fmr President of Ukraine just 12 days after the whistleblower complaint This trip was sponsored by a group that is funded by Burisma Holdings We were never supposed to know
There are reports that Schiff intended to go to Ukraine but sent a staffer to avoid the scrutiny and outrage.
Col Jim Waurishuk, USAF (Ret.), National Security Analyst: Congressman Schiff’s well documented anti-Putin obsession may have something to do with a billionaire, military complex, and oligarch patron from Ukraine. How and why, well as it turns out, Adam Schiff is an owned hatchet man of major Ukrainian arms dealer by the name Igor Pasternak…Pasternak is selling the Ukrainians military hardware, and there is no doubt, eager to sell them more paid for by U.S. taxpayers, of course…Pasternak raises thousands’ for Schiff, and Schiff raises ‘millions’ from U.S. tax dollars for Pasternak…now we know why Schiff is lying he’s connected with a major Ukrainian arms dealer!...
@seanmdav: The ICIG office admits it changed the form in August without notice and eliminated the guidance requiring first-hand knowledge of wrongdoing. Incredible gaslighting by Democrat-aligned media going on here… Additionally, congressional sources say the IC IG did not turn over the anti-Trump complainant’s whistleblower form to Congress. On that form, the complainant attested under penalty of perjury that the entire of his complaint was true. In fact, it is riddled with falsehoods.
@1776Stonewall: Rush Limbaugh just reminded that during the 2016 election, [Obama’s CIA Dir] John Brennan flew to the Ukraine under a false passport for them to help with the phony Russian dossier
Top GOP Congressmen are demanding that the Intel Community (IC) Inspector General (IG) answer their questions about changing its whistleblower rules.
Senators Demand Answers on DNC Efforts to Get Ukrainian Dirt on Trump In 2016
In a Sept. 27 letter, Grassley and Senate Homeland Security Chairman Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., demand the Justice Department look into the “brazen efforts by the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton campaign to use the government of Ukraine for the express purpose of finding negative information on then-candidate Trump in order to undermine his campaign.”… The senators also want to know why Alexandra Chalupa, the daughter of Ukrainian immigrants and longtime Democratic operative, has not been required to file paperwork as a registered foreign agent of Ukraine…The senators suggest the recent attacks on Trump are a matter of projection by Democrats…
Now that the whistleblower stuff has turned negative for Dems, GOP senators have found some courage. Their investigation demand is risible because Durham is already probing Ukraine interference in 2016.
@VicToensing: Embarrassing. [Virulently Trump-hating] @ChrisWallace @FoxNewsSunday reporting this morning on hubby and me was categorically false. [Vicky and Joe di Genova were SECRETLY working with Rudy to dig up dirt on Biden]
Why is it when hubby and I agree to a request to represent Ukrainian whistleblowers, it is called “digging up dirt” on @JoeBiden , but lawyers representing CIA “whistleblower” are not “digging up dirt” on @realDonaldTrump but doing country a “public service”?
Byron York: "No one is above the law," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as she announced the Democratic effort to impeach President Trump over the Ukraine matter. The phrase has become a Democratic mantra in the new impeachment push. But it could, in the end, serve to highlight the weakness of the Democratic strategy. The reason is, by stressing that Trump is not "above the law," Democrats are basing their case against the president on the argument that he broke the law and must be held accountable. But it's not at all clear that Trump broke any laws in the Ukraine matter. In the face of a vigorous Republican defense, any argument on that question is likely to end inconclusively…
A Democratic lawmaker has warned against the impeachment of President Donald Trump, saying that it would further split the country apart, after House leadership began an impeachment inquiry earlier this week. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-N.J.) expressed his concerns over his party’s decision to move forward with the impeachment inquiry, saying that he thinks the odds are “very high” that “it’s not going to bear any fruit.”… https://www.theepochtimes.com/lawmaker-warns-against-impeachment-of-trump-says-it-would-split-the-country-further-apart_3099711.html/
@julie_kelly2: Why was CrowdStrike working with top Obama DOJ officials, reps from U.K. and Australia and others on a cyber “war game” in March 2016 around the same time the DNC server allegedly was “hacked” by Russians?
I contacted CrowdStrike to ask for confirmation they organized the event and if they were paid by USG: No response. Regardless, wouldn’t this be a conflict? How could Comey and Co rely on the word of a partisan firm hired by Perkins Coie as evidence the Russians hacked DNC?
Also the president of CrowdStrike was an official from Mueller/Comey FBI. Further, one of the top deputies for head of DOJ NSD John Carlin, who helped organize the war game simulation with CrowdStrike in March 2016? None other than the IC inspector general...
Oct 2016 profile on CrowdStrike “The DNC wanted to go public. At the committee's request, [CrowdStrike] briefed The Washington Post about the attack. The Post story linked Fancy Bear with the Russian GRU and Cozy Bear with the FSB for the first time...”
@RoscoeBDavis1: So why is it that both CrowdStrike and FusionGPS both get huge influx of cash investments from Google at the same time at the beginning of the 2016 campaign season in 2015? Both end up as key players in the meddling scandal. Both also funded by DNC/HRC vis Perkin Coie?
@johncardillo: Crowdstrike’s venture capital came from two primary sources, Former Treasury Sec. Tim Geithner who was Hillary’s CFIUS counterpart when Uranium One was approved, and Eric Schmidt, Alphabet CEO who was considered Hillary campaign staff. Ukraine has answers. Dems are terrified.
1/ In April 2016, two months before the June report that alleged a Russian conspiracy, former President Barack Obama appointed Steven Chabinsky, the general counsel and chief risk officer for CrowdStrike, to the Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity… 4/ CrowdStrike Co-Founder Is Fellow On Russia Hawk Group, Has Connections To George Soros, Ukrainian Billionaire… 5/ CrowdStrike received $100 million in investments led by Google Capital (since re-branded as CapitalG)…
Author Peter Schweizer Drops Biden Corruption Documents – Shows Hunter Involved in Sale of US Company to China with Potential Military Applications
@charliekirk11: Fact: Joe Biden's brother, James Biden was given a $1.5 Billion dollar government contract to build homes in Iraq during the Obama Administration. How many more billion dollar deals were given to the Biden family while he was VP that we don’t know about? Where is the MSM?
Now we know why Obama didn’t want Biden to run and refused to endorse him.
OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: Isn't it weird that @JoeBiden sent a letter to ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX & CNN telling them NOT TO ALLOW Rudy Giuliani on TV? It's almost like the American news media works for the Democrats.