Is The Porsche Taycan Electric Car A Tesla Killer?

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Is The Porsche Taycan Electric Car A Tesla Killer?

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) sales trends in Q3; Norway data; Cathie Wood; Japanese critic likes Model 3; Porsche Taycan Electric Car Tesla killer?

1) A friend who gets proprietary data shared the following with me on how Tesla’s sales are trending this quarter:

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Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

We think US sales are down low single digits for the first 8 weeks of the quarter (compared to the same period in Q2, not year over year).

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Europe sales (ex-UK) are down more than that.

China is also weak.

However:

  1. They just launched the Model 3 in the UK, which looks quite strong
  2. They just introduced Model 3 SR+ in Norway, which is a big market for them
  3. Canada remains strong
  4. They have made some sales in Japan, Australia and New Zealand

Overall, we think sales are tracking to about 90,000-95,000 units for Q3, with a much weaker mix and 3-5% lower ASP.

2) Norway data (posted here) from TESLAcharts (excludes Model 3 – only compares high-price-point EVs):

3) A friend just emailed me:

Well-known Tesla bull Cathie Wood of ARK was just asked during her CNBC appearance to comment on Bethany McLean’s Vanity Fair article about Solar City, which came out on Sunday. She said she had not read it. Wood was asked if she had just ignored it. She answered that she simply hadn't heard about it. I am not making this up.

She must have lied, not wanting to comment on the article. She can't possibly be that ignorant, uninformed and stupid. Or???

4) A Japanese critic likes the Model 3: Tesla Model 3 gets Japanese car critic’s approval. Excerpt:

Sezai likened the experience of using the Model 3’s display to his first impressions of the Apple iPad. According to the critic, when he first used an iPad, there was something immediately familiar and exciting about the system and how it freed users from the “mess of Windows.” This experience, Sezai noted, is echoed in the Model 3, as the vehicle gives drivers the impression that they are “in touch with a next-generation car.”

5) The latest car that’s reportedly going to be a Tesla-killer is the Porsche Taycan, which looks pretty amazing.

Here are some articles about it:

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver

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