Back in 1950, China’s population was 554 million, India was home to 376 million people, and the US had a population of 159 million. These three countries and many others have seen explosive population growth in the last several decades. In the coming decades, the world’s population growth will be driven by sub-Saharan Africa and Asian countries. Here we take a look at the top 10 most populous countries by 2100.
Ranked: The most populous countries at the end of the century
The United Nations has published its World Population Prospects 2019 report, which raises some serious concerns. The UN estimates the global population to rise from the current 7.7 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050. It will grow further to 10.9 billion by 2100. The addition of about 3.2 billion people to the planet will put further strain on natural resources. It could also speed up climate change.
The global population has been growing despite the declining fertility rate. According to the United Nations, the global fertility rate has fallen from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 births per woman in 2019. The fertility rate is expected to keep declining in the coming decades.
Mr. Liu Zhenmin, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said in a statement, “Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries.” It could accelerate the problems of displacement and hunger.
The UN estimates that the global population will finally stop growing by the end of this century. By 2100, the annual population growth rate is estimated to be less than 0.1%. Between 2020 and 2100, the number of people aging 80 years or older will rise from 146 million to 881 million.
The population in most of Europe will shrink dramatically in the future. Europe’s total population is expected to decline from 750 million in 2019 to 630 million by 2100. In Europe, only the UK, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, and Switzerland are expected to see a growth in population. In contrast, the population of Africa will jump from 1.3 billion to 4.3 billion in the same period.
These are going to be the world’s most populous countries by 2100.
10- Egypt (225 million)
Egypt currently has a population of about 100 million. Its population is expected to more than double to 225 million by 2100. Egypt has an extremely arid climate, which has forced more than 98% of the country’s people to live on just 3% of its land area. The population is concentrated along the Nile River and Delta.
9- Tanzania (286 million)
Tanzania is one of the five African countries on this list. The UN estimates its population to skyrocket from the current 60 million to 286 million by 2100. Tanzania along with four other African countries will together account for more than half of the world’s projected population growth.
8- Ethiopia (294 million)
With around 110 million people, Ethiopia is the most populous country and largest economy in East Africa. The UN estimates its population to jump to 294 million by 2100. Hunger and poverty are some of the biggest problems in the country. A steep rise in the population could further worsen the situation.
7- Indonesia (321 million)
Indonesia is currently the world’s fourth most populous country right behind China, India, and the United States. Its population is estimated to be 274 million in 2020, which will rise to 321 million in 2100. According to the UN, Indonesia’s population will peak in 2067, and then start declining. It will be home to 2.9% of the world’s population by the end of the century.
6- Democratic Republic of Congo (362 million)
Congo currently has an estimated population of 92 million. The UN predicts its population will continue to increase over the coming decades, reaching 362 million by the end of the century. More than 80% of its population lives on $1.25 per day. It is one of the world’s poorest countries.
5- Pakistan (403 million)
The total population of Pakistan has grown by almost 60% in the last two decades. It is currently the world’s fifth most populous country. The UN estimates Pakistan’s population to almost double from 221 million in 2020 to 403 million by 2100.
4- United States of America (434 million)
The US population won’t grow by much in the next eighty years. The US is estimated to grow from 329 million this year to 434 million by 2100. According to the United Nations, US population growth will be driven by immigration. The country is expected to attract 85 million immigrants between 2020 and 2100.
3- Nigeria (733 million)
According to the UN projections, Nigeria’s population will surpass that of the United States in 2047, making it the third most populous country in the world. Between 2020 and 2100, Nigeria’s population will more than triple from 206 million to 733 million. Nigeria will be the biggest driver of global population growth in the coming decades.
2- China (1.065 billion)
Currently the world’s most populous country, China’s population will decline by 375 million between 2020 and 2100. Its population will peak in 2031 and then start declining. It is currently home to almost 20% of the world’s population. By the end of this century, China will account for only 9.8% of the world’s population.
1- India (1.45 billion)
India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2027. Its population would keep growing from 1.38 billion in 2020 to 1.7 billion in 2059. From 2060, India will see a decline in the number of people. The UN estimates the country’s population would come down to 1.45 billion by 2100.