Excerpted from a Whitney Tilson email to colleagues on the topic of Tesla’s sales numbers in europe – good, okay or bad?
In response to this Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model 3 top selling pure electric car in Western Europe, a friend wrote:
As for the Matthias Schmidt numbers for Tesla in Europe, they are of course accurate as far as January-May are concerned. We know this because we have the official government registration data from essentially all European countries. So our numbers are the same, with the caveat that different analysts choose to include different countries in their definition of “Europe.” (Is Russia in or out, for example)
The remaining question for Q2 now is of course the month of June, which Matthias doesn’t comment upon directly other than to say that the June month number won’t match the March month number of 17,408 units (all of Tesla in all of Europe). I agree. My model has Tesla approximately 2,000 units below that number.
Still, for Q2 as a whole, that means that Tesla’s sales numbers in Europe will be little over 1,000 units above its total Q1 number. This is simply because Tesla’s April month was dramatically better than its January month. May vs February were approximately similar.
That’s Europe only. Tesla’s major swing factors are the U.S., Canada and China. We have relatively poor visibility into those geographies right now. There is plenty of both upside and downside to the estimates, coming from those places. Europe is not going to surprise by anything meaningful, given the good daily and monthly data we have from there.
My overall global Tesla Q2 estimate is around 86,000. I think I could be off by 4,000 on the downside and 6,000 on the upside. Looking into Q3, I think Tesla will have to cut its prices more in order to maintain these unit deliveries. In the end, I think Tesla will deliver over 80,000 cars globally in Q3, but that the price it will pay in order to do so, consists of price cuts and therefore margin cuts, severely hurting the bottom line.
Tesla has proven that whenever possible, it will sacrifice pricing and margins, in order to try to meet the unit sales expectations. Therefore, the bears may be wrong on the expectations for units sold -- but the bears will likely be right on the margins, as Tesla’s losses will likely be worse than the market consensus.
Here are Tesla’s sales numbers in Europe for Q1:
| Europe | January | February | March | Q1 2019 |
| Model 3 | 66 | 3643 | 15890 | 19599 |
| Model S | 354 | 420 | 746 | 1520 |
| Model X | 370 | 319 | 759 | 1448 |
| TOTAL | 790 | 4382 | 17395 | 22567 |
And here are Tesla’s sales numbers in Europe for Q2 (June is my estimate):
| Europe | April | May | June | Q2 2019 |
| Model 3 | 3730 | 2922 | 13140 | 19792 |
| Model S | 446 | 513 | 1120 | 2079 |
| Model X | 328 | 664 | 955 | 1947 |
| TOTAL | 4504 | 4099 | 15215 | 23818 |
2) And in response to this Model 3 dominating every EV in Norway this year, especially in June, a friend wrote:
No, not "especially" in June.
In March, Tesla registered 5,315 Model 3 units in Norway.
Thus far in June, Tesla registered 2,102 Model 3 units in Norway.
With 8 days left in Norway, and given the numbers over the last few days, it seems like Tesla is on track for 3,300 units in Norway in June. That would represent a decline of approximately 37% compared to March.
Looking at all of Europe for the Model 3, for Q2 as a whole, my model has the Model 3 up 3% over Q1 -- 20,212 units compared to 19,599:
| Model 3 | January | February | March | Q1 2019 | Model 3 | April | May | June | Q2 2019 |
| Germany | 2 | 959 | 2224 | 3185 | Germany | 514 | 317 | 1400 | 2231 |
| Norway | 17 | 791 | 5315 | 6123 | Norway | 720 | 705 | 3300 | 4725 |
| Netherlands | 40 | 472 | 2195 | 2707 | Netherlands | 467 | 419 | 2400 | 3286 |
| France | 0 | 401 | 1153 | 1554 | France | 251 | 321 | 1400 | 1972 |
| Switzerland | 0 | 277 | 1168 | 1445 | Switzerland | 486 | 144 | 600 | 1230 |
| Belgium | 1 | 197 | 635 | 833 | Belgium | 111 | 138 | 500 | 749 |
| Austria | 0 | 136 | 703 | 839 | Austria | 142 | 127 | 500 | 769 |
| Italy | 0 | 80 | 232 | 312 | Italy | 149 | 125 | 500 | 774 |
| Finland | 1 | 34 | 144 | 179 | Finland | 87 | 42 | 200 | 329 |
| Spain | 3 | 197 | 396 | 596 | Spain | 51 | 122 | 300 | 473 |
| Portugal | 0 | 0 | 345 | 345 | Portugal | 98 | 84 | 200 | 382 |
| Luxembourg | 0 | 20 | 69 | 89 | Luxembourg | 40 | 34 | 60 | 134 |
| Sweden | 0 | 0 | 1005 | 1005 | Sweden | 446 | 198 | 800 | 1444 |
| Denmark | 2 | 79 | 306 | 387 | Denmark | 168 | 146 | 500 | 814 |
| UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | UK | 0 | 0 | 800 | 800 |
| Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Ireland | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 |
| EUROPE | 66 | 3643 | 15890 | 19599 | EUROPE | 3730 | 2922 | 13560 | 20212 |
| USA | 6500 | 5750 | 10175 | 22425 | USA | 10050 | 13950 | 16000 | 40000 |
| Canada | 710 | 875 | 939 | 2524 | Canada | 400 | 400 | 3000 | 3800 |
| N AMERICA | 7210 | 6625 | 11114 | 24949 | N AMERICA | 10450 | 14350 | 19000 | 43800 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 400 | 400 |
| China | 18 | 215 | 6134 | 6367 | China | 2324 | 1903 | 3000 | 7227 |
| ASIA | 18 | 215 | 6134 | 6367 | ASIA | 2324 | 1903 | 3400 | 7627 |
| TOTAL | 7294 | 10483 | 33138 | 50915 | TOTAL | 16504 | 19175 | 35960 | 71639 |
And then if you look at *Europe" as a whole, these are the numbers:
| Europe | January | February | March | Q1 2019 | Europe | April | May | June | Q2 2019 |
| Model 3 | 66 | 3643 | 15890 | 19599 | Model 3 | 3730 | 2922 | 13560 | 20212 |
| Model S | 354 | 420 | 746 | 1520 | Model S | 446 | 513 | 1120 | 2079 |
| Model X | 370 | 319 | 759 | 1448 | Model X | 328 | 664 | 955 | 1947 |
| TOTAL | 790 | 4382 | 17395 | 22567 | TOTAL | 4504 | 4099 | 15635 | 24238 |
In other words, once you include the Model X and S, it's an increase of 7% -- 24,238 over 22,567.
What do you think about Tesla's sales numbers in Europe? Let us know in the comments section
