Economics

Jeffrey Gundlach’s Slides “The Year No One Made Money””

Jeffrey Gundlach‘s webcast slides for the month of January, 2018, in which compares the Fed dots vs market expectations from 2018 with 2019.

TAB I

World Growth in Sync

Fed dots

EU = European Union. q/q = quarter-over-quarter. You cannot invest directly in an index.

[REITs]

Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. MSCI ACWI

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

MSCI ACWI = A market-capitalization-weighted index designed to provide a broad measure of stock performance throughout the world, including both developed and emerging markets. BOJ = Bank of Japan, ECB = European Central Bank, Fed = Federal Reserve. BOE = Bank of England.You cannot invest directly in an index.

“The Year No One Made Money”

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

Source: The Reformed Broker “The Year No one Made Money” 11-25-18

Universe is comprised of 71 asset classes: 30 equities, 30 bonds, 5 commodities, 4 credit, 1 home price and cash. YTD excludes home prices.

Fed Funds with Shadow Rate and Fed Balance Sheet

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

Source: DB Research, Bloomberg

Fed Dots vs. Market Expectations 2018 and 2019

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

Source: Bloomberg; DoubleLine

The Dot plot is a survey of Federal Open Market Committee members expectations for future policy. Market participants belong to CME Group.

December Survey – Global Economic Weakness

As of December 19, 2018

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

  • Only 10% of respondents think there will be a global recession in 2019
  • Yet the lowest net percentage of fund managers since 2008 think real global growth will improve in the next 12 months.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey

Merrill Lynch BofA fund manager’s survey canvasses and views 200 institutional, mutual and hedge fund managers.

KOSPI Indicate Strong Global Economy

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

KOSPI Index is a capitalization weighted index of all common shares on the Korean stock exchanges. SMAV = Moving average for days indicated. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Economic Data Change: U.S., Global, Europe, and Emerging Markets

Fed Dots vs. Market Expectations

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

U.S. Housing and Real Estate Market Economic Data

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

NAHB = NAB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index is based on a monthly survey of members belonging to the National Association of Home Builders. Z-Score is a numerical measurement of a value’s relationship to the mean in a group of values.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator

Jeffrey Gundlach's Just Markets

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

Conference Board U.S. Leading Index = Leading indicators include economic variables that tend to move before change in the overall economy. These indicators give a sense of the future state of an economy. YoY = year-over-year. Red shading indicates recessionary periods. You cannot invest directly in an index.

See the full slides below.