Videos

Tulip Bulb Mania: When The Fear Of Missing Out Shifts To Just Plain Fear

When The Fear Of Missing Out Shifts To Just Plain Fear. Morgan Stanley: “Buy The Dip” Might Be Dead… Bitcoin Drops 80% From Its Peak. Tulip bulb mania.

Tulip bulb mania
vjkombajn / Pixabay

Tulip Bulb Mania: When The Fear Of Missing Out Shifts To Just Plain Fear

Get Our Activist Investing Case Study!

Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below!

Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Transcript

Welcome to the McAlvany weekly commentary Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany point. Another year is over. Thanksgiving is over and you just got back from your in-laws down in Texas. You have some family traditions that you do every year and are looking for the The Walking staff is one of them. And in fact tell the listeners a little bit about what you do when you go down to the ranch in Houston or out on the ranch.

There's fishing there's hunting There's hiking and there is as you mentioned ironwood tree. We're always looking for the perfect Lee or walking stick and so we do a variety of things. This year we did spend a good bit of time. I did spend a good bit of time with my daughter teaching her to shoot a 22 and each of your kids have learned to shoot on that property haven't they.

I mean you shoot 22 targets that are set up you have enough room to do that. And this time it was your your youngest daughter.

Yeah. So it's a good time for them to spend time with grandparents. They have each of them have a calf or two which is being raised on the ranch. And so you know they always want to go out and see the calves and see how they've grown and if they're you know pregnant and going to have another calf in the future. All of that is sort of their soft approach to ranching.

It's one of the many ways though you're teaching them a little bit about business. You know I think about business versus you know productivity like having a cow and you know raising it seeing how that works selling it and taking that money and putting it elsewhere. I think of that as a good business practice you know. But I look Dave we were talking about the year look back at last year at this time we were talking about the craze the rage the what looked like tulip bulb mania that was going on in the crypto currencies. Remember what Bitcoin was doing this time last year.

I can't help but think of the fascination there is with cycles and sometimes the dumbfound unus there is with a complete cycle. You know it took the 4 year old my 4 year old to the boneyard were out on the branch and you know animals live and animals die. This is the full cycle of life and it does happen. And he just couldn't believe that you know two mules had died and there was the you know bones from a number of cows. It was overwhelming to him and he came back and said you know have you seen the dead animals and of course my mother in law was like What are you talking about. Who's died.

But when you're 4 This is your first exposure to the first exposure to the full cycle of life.

There's the full cycle of any asset class and you know certainly Solomon was keen in reminding us that there are these cycles things rise things fall and there is a time for everything under the sun.

Well and honestly day you know there may be a place for block chain technology. But what was going on last year was typical of almost any cycle that had gotten out of hand.

It has been a while since we've discussed crypto currencies. So just a quick scorecard. Bitcoin is still the largest making up about 53 percent of the known cryptocurrency universe. It's down seventy one point six percent since January 1st so year to date down 72 percent roughly. And over 80 percent from its peak in December of 2017. In the last week the decline from fifty five hundred thirty seven hundred has been quite swift and remember that the peak was 19000 last December so from 19000 to 3700 again we were dealing with the lifecycle of an asset class.

How about how about report. I remember when Bernanke was talking about how RIPL was his his pick.

I think for good reason. There's an interesting element to the technology. It's now the second largest. But that hasn't prevented it from being in decline down 84 percent from January 1 and down 90 percent from its peak valuation. Syria is kind of the third heavy hitter. It's down 86 percent since January the 1st and 92 percent from its all time highs. This is more than a bear market decline