Gross Merchandise Volume Up 25% YoY; Black Friday Could Hit $9.5 Billion

Gross Merchandise Volume Up 25% YoY; Black Friday Could Hit $9.5 Billion
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New data shows that this Black Friday is on track to the biggest sales event in history – coming close to 9.5 billion in sales.

Here’s why: new data from Swagbucks shows that Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is up 25% YoY.  Gross merchandise volume is a metric commonly used by e-commerce businesses to measure total sales transacted through their platforms.

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Swagbucks is a great barometer of the holiday shopping season since they partner with 1,500 retailers including Amazon, Walmart, Target and Best Buy to provide cash back, coupons, deals and special discounts to consumers.

“We believe this will be the biggest Black Friday ever,” said David Weinrot, COO of Prodege, the parent company of Swagbucks.  “We believe Black Friday could reach 9.5 billion in sales.”

  • Through the 5am hour PT (midnight to 5:59am), same GMV is up 25% YoY
    • Sales between 3am - and 5:59am, PT were up over 47%
  • Big Box & Mega Retail
    • Home Depot Sales through 5am are up over 100% (+53% on TGiving)
    • is off to a slower start with YoY BF sales up just 10%. Though, the retailer posted a strong TGiving YoY increase of over 30% in GMV
    • Bed Bath & Beyond sales are up 50% YoY but struggled to post gains on TGiving past 4%
  • Specialty Retail
    • Ulta up 57% through the 5AM (Full day TGiving YoY Sales increase of 33%)
    • Michael’s (Crafting & DIY): up over 50% through the 4am hour.  (TGiving YoY Sales increase of over 100%)
    • Dick's Sporting Goods up 85% YoY on BF and 164% on full day for TGiving
  • Experiences: appear to be headed for a huge win
    • Ticketmaster full day TGiving +135% YoY (and through 5AM hour of BF up over 250% but there's NOT ENOUGH data to suggest that this trend will hold for the rest of the day
  • Pure play online retail
    • up over 80% through the 5am hour of BF (and 67% for the full day of TGiving)

Swagbucks is the rewards- and loyalty-program company operated by Prodege, LLC, and offers cash back and savings on all online purchases for Black Friday.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at) - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver

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