Alibaba’s Double-11 Sales Slow Down But Beat Expectations

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Alibaba’s Double-11 Sales Slow Down But Beat Expectations
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Bank analysts react to Alibaba‘s third quarter Double-11 sales slowed down (27% yoy) compared to last year (39% yoy).

Reaction to Alibaba’s Double-11 Sales

Deutsche Bank

Double-11’s 27% yoy GMV growth appears in line with 26% ad growth outlook for 3Q The 10th Singles Day (aka D11) GMV ended up with RMB213.5bn, up 27% yoy, compared to 39% yoy last year. The results are largely in line with the expectations given we assume 26% yoy for CMR and commission revenue combined for 3Q FY19 and since we do not assume any meaningful increase in take rate during the quarter per BABA management’s recent comments.

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Oppenheimer

Alibaba ended 2018 Singles Day with total GMV in RMB +27% y/y vs. +39% in 2017. We believe this suggests a weaker macro environment in China, on top of the law of large numbers. Tmall orders increased 28% y/y, with average order value -1% in RMB vs. 2017 and +11% vs. 2016. This year, 237 brands on Tmall exceeded RMB 100M GMV, +42% y/y. During the event, post-90s generation accounted for 46% of total buyers. Starbucks participated in Double 11 for the first time, with the first cup of Starbucks coffee delivered by Ele.me 9 mins after the event kicked off. In 2018, new participants in BABA's Double 11 include Ele.me, Hema, Easyhome, Lazada and RT-Mart, which were not included in 2017 GMV calculation. Overall, we continue to see BABA's ecosystem evolving with new elements: New Retail (Intime, Hema...), Local Services (Koubei+Ele.me...) and Travel (Fliggy). Going forward, we expect GMV growth will become more reliant on the cooperation and synergies b/w different channels and services.

CLSA

Alibaba’s Double-11 sales slowed amid a macro slowdown but beat our expectation. Total GMV was up 27% YoY, ahead of the expected c.25% YoY.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver

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