Alibaba’s Double-11 Sales Slow Down But Beat Expectations

Bank analysts react to Alibaba‘s third quarter Double-11 sales slowed down (27% yoy) compared to last year (39% yoy).

Alibaba Double-11 Sales

By Charliepug (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Reaction to Alibaba’s Double-11 Sales

Deutsche Bank

Double-11’s 27% yoy GMV growth appears in line with 26% ad growth outlook for 3Q The 10th Singles Day (aka D11) GMV ended up with RMB213.5bn, up 27% yoy, compared to 39% yoy last year. The results are largely in line with the expectations given we assume 26% yoy for CMR and commission revenue combined for 3Q FY19 and since we do not assume any meaningful increase in take rate during the quarter per BABA management’s recent comments.

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Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Oppenheimer

Alibaba ended 2018 Singles Day with total GMV in RMB +27% y/y vs. +39% in 2017. We believe this suggests a weaker macro environment in China, on top of the law of large numbers. Tmall orders increased 28% y/y, with average order value -1% in RMB vs. 2017 and +11% vs. 2016. This year, 237 brands on Tmall exceeded RMB 100M GMV, +42% y/y. During the event, post-90s generation accounted for 46% of total buyers. Starbucks participated in Double 11 for the first time, with the first cup of Starbucks coffee delivered by Ele.me 9 mins after the event kicked off. In 2018, new participants in BABA's Double 11 include Ele.me, Hema, Easyhome, Lazada and RT-Mart, which were not included in 2017 GMV calculation. Overall, we continue to see BABA's ecosystem evolving with new elements: New Retail (Intime, Hema...), Local Services (Koubei+Ele.me...) and Travel (Fliggy). Going forward, we expect GMV growth will become more reliant on the cooperation and synergies b/w different channels and services.

CLSA

Alibaba’s Double-11 sales slowed amid a macro slowdown but beat our expectation. Total GMV was up 27% YoY, ahead of the expected c.25% YoY.




About the Author

Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver