Politics

Trump’s Twenty-Twenty Vision

In 2020, when we look back at President Donald Trump‘s four years in office, his term will neatly divide into two almost diametrically opposite halves.

Trump Economic Expansion
Crazygoat / Pixabay

Until now, almost everything has gone his way. But on Election night, less than four weeks from now, it will start to become increasingly apparent that he will experience a sharp reversal of fortune.

Since he took office, the president has enjoyed three major triumphs. Perhaps his proudest was securing the massive tax cut in December 2017, which primarily benefited the rich and our largest corporations, while providing the economy with a very short-lived shot in the arm.

Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Then, with a strong assist from Senator Mitch McConnell and the razor thin Republican Senate majority, his two Supreme Court nominees, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh have given the Republicans a reliable majority, which they may enjoy for many years to come.

Finally, aided by his solid core of diehard grassroots supporters, Trump has taken full control of the Republican party. Virtually no prominent Republican politician dares neglecting to genuflect, let alone openly oppose him.

What will be so different after November’s mid-term election? Let’s consider the consequences of four major changes that we can expect.

1. The Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives. During Trump’s first two years in office, he enjoyed Republican majorities in the House and the Senate.

No longer will he be able to pass any partisan legislation such as funding his beloved wall to keep “undesirable” immigrants from flooding into our country from Mexico and other nations to the South. And as soon as the Democrats take control in January, his administration will be subject to multiple embarrassing investigations by various House committees.

2. Robert Mueller’s investigation will begin closing in on Trump. As more and more of his political associates are charged with serious crimes and accept plea bargains, there’s no telling just where the buck will stop. And surely House committees now under Democratic control will cooperate fully with Mueller. Trump may soon be boasting of being the most investigated president in history.

3. The Federal Budget deficit will top one trillion dollars in fiscal year 2019. Until now, the so-called Trump economic expansion has been fueled mainly with borrowed money, and has been living on borrowed time. Not only will there be no future tax cuts, but some of Trump’s favorite spending programs will be cut.

4. Interest rates will continue to rise. Because of the increasing specter of inflation – as well as our massive federal budget deficits – our rising interest rates will surely slow our rate of economic expansion, and very possibly help cause a recession by the end of next year. Since Trump takes full credit for our current prosperity, he will have outright ownership of a subsequent recession.

Economic and political predictions are often wrong, and so it’s quite possible that Donald Trump’s charmed political life will continue for the next couple of years. Still, I wouldn’t bet on it.