DoubleLine Global Bond webcast slides for the month of October 2018, titled, “Navigating Global Cross Currents Navigating Global Cross Currents.”
TAB I – Today’s Cross Currents
Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
The Rise of Populism in the Developed World
Source: DB Research
Populism Index: an aggregated index of populism in seven large countries over the last century weighted by populist votes and population size. We include the lower house elections in France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan and Germany in addition to presidential elections within the United States. While the definition of populism is inherently subjective, the criteria used were as follows: Parties that espouse communist policy positions. Parties that espouse nationalist tendencies with regards to immigration and militarism. Parties led by leaders with dominating, charismatic personalities rather than well-defined policy positions. Regarding Europe, generally parties that display euro-sceptic or anti-Nato tendencies. Anti-Corporate Progressive Presidential candidates in US Elections whose political ideologies fell outside the political mainstream were also included.
Trump Approval Rating
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine
America First
Source: DoubleLine
G8 - France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, Canada, and Russia; G7 - France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, Canada
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit by Country
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, DoubleLine 2017 data
World GDP
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine, IMF
China Global Leader in Exports
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine
Non-Tariff Barriers higher in EM and China
Source: DB Research EM: Emerging Markets
Services Trade Restrictiveness Index: OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) catalogues barriers to services trade and identifies potential scope to unlock growth through regulatory reform. The STRI composite indices are derived by quantifying the qualitative information as binary scores. The resulting sectoral indices take values between zero (complete openness to trade and investment) and one (total market closure to foreign services providers).
Escalating Tariffs
Source: Goldman Sachs GIR
G20 Tariff Rate
Source: DB Research
Impact of Tariffs on China GDP
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine
Double Deficit Countries at Risk
Source: Morgan Stanley EM Research
U.S. Exceptionalism: Fiscal Measures on U.S. GDP
Source: DB Research
CBO: Congressional Budget Office; DB: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Exceptionalism: Deregulation
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine, Federal Register https://www.federalregister.gov/uploads/2018/03/pagesPublished2017.pdf
See the full slides below.
