Business

DoubleLine Global Bond Webcast Slides: Navigating Global Cross Currents; The Rise of Populism in the Developed World

DoubleLine Global Bond webcast slides for the month of October 2018, titled, “Navigating Global Cross Currents Navigating Global Cross Currents.”

TAB I – Today’s Cross Currents

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Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

The Rise of Populism in the Developed World

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: DB Research

Populism Index: an aggregated index of populism in seven large countries over the last century weighted by populist votes and population size. We include the lower house elections in France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan and Germany in addition to presidential elections within the United States. While the definition of populism is inherently subjective, the criteria used were as follows: Parties that espouse communist policy positions. Parties that espouse nationalist tendencies with regards to immigration and militarism. Parties led by leaders with dominating, charismatic personalities rather than well-defined policy positions. Regarding Europe, generally parties that display euro-sceptic or anti-Nato tendencies. Anti-Corporate Progressive Presidential candidates in US Elections whose political ideologies fell outside the political mainstream were also included.

Trump Approval Rating

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

America First

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: DoubleLine

G8 - France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, Canada, and Russia; G7 - France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, Canada

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit by Country

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, DoubleLine 2017 data

World GDP

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine, IMF

China Global Leader in Exports

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

Non-Tariff Barriers higher in EM and China

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: DB Research EM: Emerging Markets

Services Trade Restrictiveness Index: OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) catalogues barriers to services trade and identifies potential scope to unlock growth through regulatory reform. The STRI composite indices are derived by quantifying the qualitative information as binary scores. The resulting sectoral indices take values between zero (complete openness to trade and investment) and one (total market closure to foreign services providers).

Escalating Tariffs

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Goldman Sachs GIR

G20 Tariff Rate

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: DB Research

Impact of Tariffs on China GDP

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

Double Deficit Countries at Risk

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Morgan Stanley EM Research

U.S. Exceptionalism: Fiscal Measures on U.S. GDP

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: DB Research

CBO: Congressional Budget Office; DB: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Exceptionalism: Deregulation

Navigating Global Cross Currents

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine, Federal Register https://www.federalregister.gov/uploads/2018/03/pagesPublished2017.pdf

See the full slides below.