Business

Whitney Tilson Goes There Again, Predicts Bitcoin To Fall To $4k

Excerpted from Whitney Tilson’s latest email to colleagues entitled “Videos & slides from seminars; upcoming webinar; make a name for yourself; crypto; Griffin”

Also see Whitney Tilson’s prior bitcoin predictions

 

1) We’ve posted both our slides and videos from our two seminars last week:

  • An Introduction to Value Investing: slides (including updated ones on Berkshire Hathaway, Google and Facebook) and the 127-minute video of the event

Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

2) We only got through half of our material on Understanding Financial Statements on Thursday (defining and explaining the major line items of the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement), so we’ve scheduled a two-hour follow-up webinar during which we’ll show how to do basic analyses of the financial statements, calculating growth rates, margins, EBIT, EBITDA, current and quick ratios, debt to equity ratio, return on equity and free cash flow. Lastly, we will show how the financial statements tell a story about a company, how a company is raising and allocating capital, and potential warning flags. It will be on Thursday, September 20 from 5:30-7:30pm ET. Registration is now open.

ValueWalk readers  Pease use “VW10” for a discount!

3) A friend of mine who’s run a fund for nearly a decade asked me:

“Have you found a repeatable way to meet potential LP's in the high-net-worth space (doctors, lawyers, etc.)? I think it would add a ton of value to figure that out.”

Here was the reply I sent him:

I built my entire business (which peaked at $200M in assets) on HNW investors – others I can think of who’ve done this well include Mohnish Pabrai, Guy Spier and Sahm Adrangi. Here are some things one or more of us did/do:

  • We write a lot – articles, emails, books (we’re all good writers and teachers, have strong opinions, etc.)
  • Host events – investor meetings, cocktail parties at Berkshire, lunch after the Munger meeting (Wesco, now Daily Journal)
  • We have all developed big email lists (Sahm has been especially good with social media), in part by being very responsive to everyone who contacts us
  • Do high-profile things: Guy and Mohnish bought lunch with Buffett; for years, I was the only person who published detailed notes of the Berkshire and Munger annual meetings
  • We all speak regularly at conferences (Guy and I organize our own)

We teach much more about how to make a name for yourself and use this to raise money in our seminar/webinar on How to Launch and Build an Investment Fund (check out the new two-minute video of me describing it here).

4) While the crypto index may be down 80%, bitcoin is “only” down 68% from its peak (from $20,000 to $6,467 today). My prediction, based on my observations of many other silly bubbles like 3D printing, is that the leaders generally fall at least 80% (while the dreck falls far more, often to zero), which would take bitcoin to $4,000 (down another 38%). Crypto’s 80% Plunge Is Now Worse Than the Dot-Com Crash. Excerpt:

The Great Crypto Crash of 2018 looks more and more like one for the record books.

As virtual currencies plumbed new depths on Wednesday, the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 10 Index extended its collapse from a January high to 80 percent. The tumble has now surpassed the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 78 percent peak-to-trough decline after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.

Like their predecessors during the Internet-stock boom almost two decades ago, cryptocurrency investors who bet big on a seemingly revolutionary technology are suffering a painful reality check, particularly those in many secondary tokens, so-called alt-coins.

…One silver lining of the crypto slump is that ramifications for the global economy are likely to be minimal. While the market has lost more than $640 billion of value since peaking in January, that’s a far cry from the trillions erased from Nasdaq Composite stocks during the dot-com bust.

5) An interesting article about a bubble guy: Olaf Carlson-Wee Rode the Bitcoin Boom to Silicon Valley Riches. Can He Survive the Crash? Excerpt:

Olaf Carlson-Wee has crammed the highs and lows of a hedge-fund career into roughly one year—all before his 30th birthday.

He turned $14,502 into a $150 million personal fortune by going all-in on cryptocurrencies right before bitcoin became a household name. His fund, Polychain Capital, earned investors including Silicon Valley heavyweight Andreessen Horowitz a staggering 2,303% last year, after fees—among the best showings for a billion-dollar investment firm in history—drawing comparisons to Wall Street traders such as John Paulson and George Soros.

Now, Mr. Carlson-Wee must prove he isn’t a one-hit wonder. It isn’t going well.

6) John Griffin of Blue Ridge is a legend, so you won’t want to miss this:

The Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing invites you to the twenty eighth annual

Graham and Dodd Breakfast

A Discussion with

John Griffin, founder of Blue Ridge Capital

Interviewed by

Ian McKinnon, founding partner of Sandia Holdings, LLC

Friday, October 19, 2018
8 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. 

The Pierre Hotel, Grand Ballroom

 East 61st Street, New York, NY 10065

Register Now

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