Tilson Says TLRY Is Like Cryptos, 3D Printing, A Bubble About To Burst

Tilson Says TLRY Is Like Cryptos, 3D Printing, A Bubble About To Burst

Whitney Tilson’s additional comments on the hottest new stock TLRY. Excerpted from an email to colleagues.

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A quick follow-up to my email this morning:

Maverick Capital Slides 22.9% In Q1, Short Bets Yield Positive Returns [Exclusive]

investor 1652197064Maverick Capital's flagship hedge fund lost -22.9% in the first quarter of 2022 according to a copy of the firm's quarterly update, which ValueWalk has been able to review. The firm's flagship fund, Maverick Fundamental Hedge, accounts for $3.7 billion of the group's $8.1 billion of assets under management. Even after losses in the first Read More

1) After seeing my comments on Tilray (TLRY) in my email earlier today, Yahoo Finance invited me on their afternoon streaming video show, The Final Round, where I:

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  • Heaped scorn on this obvious bubble stock, saying it’s overvalued by at least 10x, maybe even 100x
  • Compared it to cryptocurrency, 3D printing, and alternative power stocks at their peaks
  • Noted that TLRY short sellers can’t correct this inefficiency because the cost of borrow and put options are so expensive
  • Said it’s a great cautionary tale for short sellers, as it appeared to be a great short at $50 a few weeks ago – the lesson is to avoid hot stocks in hot sectors, with limited floats and a big short interest
  • Predicted that it’s certain to be down by 90% from its high today of $300 within a year (probably sooner; I think it’ll be below $100 within a month)
  • Lamented how many greedy, naïve, inexperienced individual investors are going to get incinerated
  • Said the SEC should halt TLRY trading for a week so it can investigate possible market manipulation

You can watch it here (10 minutes).

PS—Here is a short (<2 minute) video about our Advanced Seminar on Short Selling, and here is further information on it.

2) We only got through half of our material on Understanding Financial Statements last Thursday (defining and explaining the major line items of the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement), so we’re hosting a two-hour follow-up webinar tomorrow during which we’ll show how to do basic analyses of the financial statements, calculating growth rates, margins, EBIT, EBITDA, current and quick ratios, debt to equity ratio, return on equity and free cash flow. Lastly, we will show how the financial statements tell a story about a company, how a company is raising and allocating capital, and potential warning flags.

It will take place tomorrow, Thursday, September 20, from 5:30-7:30pm ET. To join it live, please register here. It will be recorded and I’ll email out a link to the recording shortly afterward.

3) A key part of the learning experience at our seminars is the many fascinating guests who come to speak – generally one per day. On occasion, they give us permission to post the videos publicly. One of the most interesting was Anthony Scaramucci, who spoke to our students in June – you can see the entire video, which has more than 2,800 views, here (43 minutes).

A lot of folks, however, don’t have time to watch long videos, so we’re now posting shorter clips of our most popular guest speakers on our YouTube channel, which you can access and subscribe to here. Here is The Mooch on leadership and empowering others.

4) Steve Jobs’s daughter published a memoir earlier this month, which the NYT reviewed: In ‘Small Fry,’ Steve Jobs Comes Across as a Jerk. His Daughter Forgives Him. Should We? Excerpt:

When Steve Jobs told his daughter Lisa Brennan-Jobs that the Apple Lisa computer was not named after her, it was not a cruel lie to a little girl, she insists — he was teaching her “not to ride on his coattails.”

What do you think about TLRY? Comment below!

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver
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