Up 17% YTD On Bearish China Bet, Crescat Global Macro Predicts The Pain Will Spread To The S&P 500

From Crescat Capital’s latest update to investors

China equity and yuan shorts worked well for Crescat’s hedge funds in July although US equity shorts and the gold longs held back the performance. We expect US equity shorts and gold longs to be changing soon in our favor. The S&P 500 is re-testing its January 26 high, but there are many bearish divergences that indicate it will fail soon. Since the Chinese economy, currency, and stock market are crashing, it is doubtful the S&P 500 can break out to new highs now. With record valuations of US equities, peak earnings growth, peak margins, and peak US economic growth all hitting in the first half of 2018, what is left to drive the S&P 500 higher going forward? Nothing. We think China and our own looming deficits will drag it all down.

Collapse of China Yuan Foreshadowing Coming Collapse of S&P 500

Michael Mauboussin: Here’s what active managers can do

michael mauboussin, Credit Suisse, valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, decision making, skill versus luck, value investing, Legg Mason, The Success Equation, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, analysts, behavioral finance, More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, academics , valuewalkThe debate over active versus passive management continues as trends show the ongoing shift from active into passive funds. Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more At the Morningstar Investment Conference, Michael Mauboussin of Counterpoint Global argued that the rise of index funds has made it more difficult to be an active manager. Drawing Read More

S&P 500 Index Re-test Looks Set Up to Fail

July estimates:

August estimates, off to a good start:


Crescat Capital