In the course of the 21st century, fossil fuels will run out and an energy transition seems unavoidable. In view of the explosive growth in China and India, the pessimists give us only 25 years to operate an energy transition to sustainable energy. But is an energy transition easy to set in motion?
Will European countries have completed their transition in time, before oil and gas become scarce and/or too expensive and/or difficult to reach? Will our energy-dependent economies still be able to continue? These are important questions in a world in which new power blocks and political alliances arise on the basis of differences in the energy situation.
“In “energy transition” everyone would like a harmonious development” says Coby van der Linde, director of the Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP), “but if you look at history, you’ll see that these kind of big changes happen more often. And they usually come with conflict’.
Coby van der Linde developed a future scenario that VPRO Backlight presented to foreign experts. Together they outline a disturbing picture of geopolitical conflicts that may await us. With Michael Klare (Resource Wars, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, The new geopoliticis of energy), former Admiral William Fallon (former captain of CentCom), political economist Mikhail Deliagin (Moscow), Edward Lucas (‘The New Cold War’), Youssef Ibrahim (columnist and political risk consultant) and Ariel Cohen (senior research fellow The Heritage Foundation).
Transition To Sustainable Energy – VPRO Documentary – 2010
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It means that Russia’s consumers must go short. It means that European consumers go short. This is the time when you want every scrap of gas available.