Jim Rogers on Chinese state media on the hot topic of trade disputes between the US and the world’s second-largest economy.
Below are an informal excerpt transcript and the full video
Video with CGTN and informal transcript below
The topics to be discussed upfront are what they want to have that they don’t want to trade at least China doesn’t want it, and some people in America don’t want to trade. The business community and the agricultural community in America said We want to trade. So at least for the moment it’s been calmed down, and I hope it stays calm down and we don’t have the risk way is that later next year when the economy gets bad in the U.S. then Mr. Trump will look for a fight because he thinks the trade will win he can win the trade war and he thinks that the trade war can be blamed on China is correct. But that’s the way he thinks. We know it is from the Chinese side that there is going to be a commitment of purchases of American agricultural products as well as energy products. But of course, China did not compete at all to the so-called the 200 billion U.S. dollars that Trump put out there. A so-called target.
China is very smart. They know that Mr. Trump won the election because of agricultural states and energy states. Those states voted for Mr. Trump. The Chinese are trying to make them happy and that they can make them happy and that will help keep the trade war down. That’s what his motives are.
He knows that China knows it I know it everybody knows you’ve been dealing with that president from when he was still a businessperson. And of course probably that you know him that her and the logic of his better. What do you think is the desire of his right now in this negotiation we understand this White House is pretty much coming with one voice not just from President Karzai that you did not ever do business with Mr. Trump but what he wants is to be reelected. So all politicians want that’s what they do. They can’t get a real job. So they go into politics. They want to keep getting elected and keep power.
So what you are saying ace agricultural products energy products that are going to contribute to Mr. Trump’s political power and the possibility of being reelected if you get out the map and look at the states that he won inaudible put in agriculture and they produce energy. Now this was is one of the other thing is that the White House is also different from the business community and also the other political apparatus Washington. Some argue that the current negotiation is an effort coming from the White House.
Others argue it is a concerted effort coming from different sides of the society. You one important member of the business community what do you think the nature of the current discussion Mr. Trump is trying to get reelected and all the congressmen and senators are trying to get reelected too. And so they look at their base to see what they need to do. Mr. Trump said if he’s tough looks against foreigners it will help him get reelected. Well, I things people look at these negotiations and think about the two sides.
I hope China continues to open up its mind with China that would open up completely today if not China and they don’t have to listen to me and they’re not the risk, of course, is that this will encourage hardliners in China the ones who don’t want to open up and say I see you can’t trust any can’t trust the bars. That’s the risk. Otherwise, if they do buy more from America, they’re happy to buy more inaudible American China needs because then maybe you’ll continue to open up. I hope so. Why have a completely open China what an exciting country it already is exciting the more open the more exciting the share price. Mr Rogers said 40 years of reform and opening up the anniversary. I know and I know Neil came to China very early in the years and went around even on motorbikes. But the thing is when China still had the guts to push for further reforms that has been a topic being debated inside China a lot too. I know it has been as I say the result is that the hardliners have gone to open will take courage from all of this. Now, most young people in China want to open up more and more and more. Some of the older people still remember the old days. But eventually, it’s going to happen.
How much you think about the speed that China is taking when it comes to next stage with what I heard his speech and it was a very old speech and it was showing restraint. I hope it continues as I say. I would open up everything right now. Right now our announcement CGT everything finance is open autumnal everything is open. They’re doing it at their speed. I cannot tell China what to do what they’re doing and I would just do it faster than debate about technology and intellectual property rights. Mr. Rogers is a big one between China and the United States. Where does that Teazle going on. Over the past few weeks and still lingering at Rogers China-United States trade eventually the real essence of this debate what exactly is it. Well let me tell you that China and the U.S. are the largest economies in the world. They’re both vibrant dynamic economies. They can work together and really be very very rich. Our government is idealistic wrong on the two very open to very important and rich countries.
If they work together instead of fighting each other over foolish things can you imagine the two countries working together how exciting and prosperous both would be and some these foolish squabbles about nothing that China has opened up more. Don’t get me wrong China doesn’t open up more. But the two working together instead of squabbling. Wow that could be very very exciting. And from the business perspective I understand there are so many keeping interest groups in the U.S. actually know better than anybody else that these brought us to say what you are hoping for.
Are they also the wishes of the others. Some people always suffer. There are open markets yes but for the most part the over 300 million Americans most of us would be better off with cheaper goods better quality goods and more trade going back and forth. Yes there’s always somebody who suffers but that’s the world and that’s life. That’s history. You cannot change that. If you don’t want anybody to suffer where would you go. The USSR but it didn’t work here either. It didn’t work out. The Americans know this and they’re handing out finally some sun.
But for the most part yes. As the drama goes on TV and the foreigners are bad. Everybody nods and says yes the president said foreigners are bad and they must be bad. You realize our conversation is also broadcasting and I just said make it not true correct. I understand as an investor you have always been having the guts to go into these so-called exotic places for the Western investors and be able to explore in the early stages. The opportunities are very deep and market take about Russia. Where is it now.
Now I’m optimistic. It’s changed. Something has happened in the Kremlin. They have a different view toward capital and investors encounter. It was extremely different. Like what. Well it used to be they just shot you or put you in jail or took your money away. Now they understand you cannot treat investors that way. You cannot treat capital that way. You have to play by the rules and you have to do things to help people not to fight them and not to be against know something dramatic happen in the Kremlin. But about two years ago five years ago inaudible one of the things you and I have noticed and we talk about this is the impact of sanctions by the West on Russia instead of making it going that a desperate case guy that Russia has been grasping this opportunity. What next. What exactly is Iraq. His family was sending him rarely if ever worked in his. There are very few examples and I cannot think of any where sanctions work may hurt some people and small groups but they also help other Hertz’s right now. Russian agriculture is booming because America put sanctions on agriculture so they are producing everything for themselves and not buying from outside. It’s great. Russia needs Russian farmers and might use them.
American farmers are going to have a big new competitor because we have made sure farmers great again. It’s agriculture only place. No no no. Some of the other things mining for instance is doing just about even even automobiles in Russia now. You probably cannot name a single Russian car. Now even Russian cars are being manufactured again and throbbing. Have you noticed the changes over the years. But because I recently when as now President Putin being elected into the Kremlin and the line up of all the government posts being fulfilled right now but the changes that I noticed it has over the years as they usually reflect current events. Right now everybody is worried about trade wars sanctions international trade. Last year that was not. That was not a topic and you also I notice many many many international businesses are here.
They want to do business in Russia and even American businesses are here in big time. So so far everybody’s worried about it and talking about it. But also everyone still wants to engage and trade and everybody’s is concerned about the current stage whether there’s going to be a trade war or not. As you just said that means the rockers way everybody most people know that trade wars have never worked. Nobody wins a trade war everybody knows it.
Mr Trump wants trade wars he’s wanted one of them his whole career. But most of the rest of us know they don’t work and that they hurt everybody including the people who start.
Recently Chinese President Xi Jinping in Caracas asked the question when he was meeting with the former secretary general of the United Nations Mr. Ban Ki moon he asked the question whether economies in the world should be more open or closed open whether there should be a win win situation or one person one country take home meaning zero sum game win win for everybody but everybody has to open. Should there be more reforms where everyone or everyone just being conservative so-called. Now everybody in Beijing knows the answer to those questions just like I know the answer to those questions.
But Beijing also has been open to. Yeah well violated for me call me serratus. Given your knowledge of fate after all you’ll be an investor in the world for decades giving your very dire rap and straightforward style as well. What would you say if your being asked by leaders of the world some of the major economies China Russia the states about what do you think of the economies. Where shall the country girl. What would you say. Well I would say to China first because it’s the second largest economy in the world and this will close in those open up.
This isn’t 1918. This is 2018. China is rich powerful and successful open up and do it and we will all be very very very happy. I would say the same to America to Goncalo don’t close open the borders open the economy and that’s all succeed together. And Russia to Russia the same that Russia is doing and I so here we are in the home of Lenin and Stalin was Stalin mother here. But they were all here and they’re opening up amazingly much more than most. They have a convertible currency not even China has a convertible currency yet they have very low debt.
China has more debt than Russia China and Russia is doing amazing things. This is the home of Stalin and Lenin.
