Beating The Market 16 Out Of 18 Times

Beating The Market 16 Out Of 18 Times

In a previous Value Walk post (“A Security Selection Method That Beats The Market”), I mentioned that, since June 8th, I’ve been posting Portfolio Armor‘s top ten names each week. These names are ranked based on my site’s estimate of their potential returns over the next 6 months, net of hedging costs (each of these top names is hedgeable against declines as small as 9%). As of Thursday, we now have 6-month performance data for 18 weekly top names cohorts since then, with the October 5th cohort (pictured above), ending on April 5th.

The table below shows the performance of each of those 18 weekly cohorts . Clicking on a starting date will take you to an interactive chart for that cohort.


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Starting Date Portfolio Armor 6-Month Performance SPY 6-Month Performance
June 8, 2017 14.49% 9.99%
June 15, 2017 19.85% 10.97%
June 22, 2017 24.45% 11.27%
June 29, 2017 18.24% 11.68%
July 6, 2017 21.03% 14.81%
July 13, 2017 28.25% 14.85%
July 20, 2017 25.04% 14.62%
July 27, 2017 33.52% 17.10%
August 3, 2017 20.72% 12.66%
August 10, 2017 13.05% 8.36%
August 17, 2017 10.71% 13.48%
August 24, 2017 15.23% 13.72%
August 31, 2017 8.42% 10.87%
September 7, 2017 12.75% 11.61%
September 14, 2017 29.05% 11.19%
September 21, 2017 22.56% 9.42%
September 28, 2017 14.30% 4.73%
October 5, 2017 11.53% 5.26%
Average 19.07% 11.48%

So Portfolio Armor’s top ten names averaged 19.07% over the average of these 18 6-month periods, versus SPY’s average of 11.48%, an average outperformance of 7.59% over 6 months. The table above is updated here every Thursday night:

For a few months, in addition to posting those top names in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service, I also time-stamped them on Twitter. If you click on the tweet shown below, and scroll down, it will take you to a thread showing those time-stamped posts as well as charts of their subsequent performance.

Here’s an advance look at how our October 12th top ten cohort has performed as of Friday’s close:

You can see an interactive version of that chart here.

I mentioned above that these names are all hedgeable against declines of as little as 9%, but it’s more cost effective to hedge them against larger declines.

ValueWalk readers can check it out here

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