We’re now a little over one year into Trump’s presidency, giving us some initial indication of how well things are going. Here’s a look at how the labor market has performed during the first year of both presidents’ administrations.
First off, employment. Employment during the first year of Trump’s administration is up about 1.5%; during Obama’s first year, employment declined by 3.2%.
Trump is the definite winner here. Of course, it helps a lot to have the first year of your presidency to be during an expansion compared to a recession.
On the wage front, Obama has a slight lead. During the first 13 months of Obama’s presidency, salaries expended by 2.7%; wages during Trump’s first 13 months are up 2.4%.
On the Unemployment Rate front, Trump is the clear winner. The Unemployment Rate is down 15% during Trump’s first year in office; during Obama’s first year, the Unemployment Rate climbed 26%.
What about an education breakdown of the Unemployment Rate? Trump had stronger than usual support from individuals with less than a high school diploma. Who wins there? During the first year of his presidency, the Unemployment Rate is down 15% for Trump; during Obama’s first year, the Unemployment Rate climbed 24%.
What about individuals with college degrees? During the first years of their respective presidencies, the Unemployment Rate for individuals with a college degree increased 26% for Obama and declined 16% for Trump. Trump is the clear winner here.
Labor Force Participation Rate
Switching the Labor Force Participation Rate figures, Trump has the advantage there as well. During Trump’s first year in office, the Labor Force Participation Rate has dropped 0.2%; during Obama’s first year in office, the Labor Force Participation Rate declined 1.4%.
Some Industry Views
What about the industry views? Obama tended to focus on the Education and Health Services sectors. Trump has heavily focused on manufacturing jobs and outsourcing.
On the Education and Health Services front, during the first 13 months of their respective presidencies, Obama saw employment in these sectors grow by 1.7%; over the same period, work in these industries expanded by 2.0% for Trump.
Switching to the manufacturing sectors, Trump comes out ahead there as well. During Trump’s first year in office, manufacturing employment has expanded by 1.5%, while over the same time frame, manufacturing employment during Obama’s presidency declined by 8.8%.
Overall, in a comparison of the labor market performance during the first year of Trump compared to the labor market performance during the first year of Obama, the clear winner is Trump. By almost every measure, the current administration appears much stronger. Of course, it probably helps to start one's presidency during an economic expansion compared to a deep recession.
These charts will be updated as the current administration gains more footing so stay tuned.