Chemical Activity At A New Record , Equity Markets To Follow?

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Chemical Activity At A New Record , Equity Markets To Follow?

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CAB reported at a new record of 121.13 with past few months revised higher. Economic activity is accelerating and equities should follow as they have done historically. Likely a 3yr-5yr period of higher equity markets based on recent reduction of regulations, tax reductions, US reemerging as protector of Democracy globally and a falling US$.

Contrary to accepted wisdom, a weaker US$ represents repatriation of capital back to Intl markets which in recent years had pooled in the US as a safe haven from predations of Iran, ISIS, Russia and etc. Fear of capital losses drove the US$ higher 2014-2016 by ~40% resulting in a US Industrial recession and collapsing commodity prices. Exiting this period, we are seeing a very strong recovery which spurs global economic expansion. The US$ still has ~25% fall to return to its long-term trend.

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A falling US$ is positive for global economic expansion and rising global equity markets.

Upside should continue to surprise, markets should respond.

Article by ValuePlays

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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.

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