The Charts Of 2017 – Honorable Mentions

As part of the release of the 2017 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (a summary of some of the best, worst, and most notable charts of 2017 + the ones to watch in 2018) we’ve been doing a series of articles: 5 Charts for the Silly Season (title should make it obvious), My Favorite Charts of 2017 (as the title says), and the 2017 People’s Choice Charts (the most popular charts we posted on Twitter).  This article looks at those in the Honorable Mentions category.  Those charts worthy of mention but not quite fitting in the previous categories…

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  1. The Euphoriameter” – a holistic composite view of investor sentiment based on survey responses, market risk pricing, and valuations. At present the indicator shows euphoria has become the dominant mood in the market.

The Charts Of 2017 - Honorable Mentions

  1. What do we want?  FinTech!  (financials and technology have been the main driver of S&P500 returns over the past couple of years – the sensationally-inclined might want to call this the “fintech bubble”, but I’ll leave that to others…)

The Charts Of 2017 - Honorable Mentions

  1. The “governance risk premium” – some work we did on expected returns and composite governance rankings appeared to reveal a sort of governance risk premium.

The Charts Of 2017 - Honorable Mentions

  1. It’s all relative… the winners in global equity relative performance are: momentum, low dividend yield, growth vs value, and cyclicals vs defensives. Truly remarkable run-up in the equal weighted index of these factors.

The Charts Of 2017 - Honorable Mentions

  1. Back to the fundamentals: this chart shows an interesting time series – it’s from a weekly survey I conduct on my personal Twitter account (@Callum_Thomas) where I ask my followers their views on equities and bonds (bullish or bearish for primarily technical or fundamental rationale). Key point is there has been a massive reassessment of fundamentals on both the equity and bond front (and consistently – note: bonds sentiment is inverted because e.g. better economic fundamentals would be bearish bonds).

The Charts Of 2017 - Honorable Mentions

  1. Final one of this section is an interesting view on rolling realized average pair-wise correlations between the GICS sectors of the S&P500. It represents a shift away from the "risk-on/risk-off" regime as the various sectors are increasingly doing their own thing.  Notably also, it has fallen to levels last seen around the height of the dot com boom.  I’ll let you draw your own conclusion on that aspect…

The Charts Of 2017 - Honorable Mentions

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Article by Callum Thomas, Top Down Charts




About the Author

Top Down Charts
Topdown Charts: "chart driven macro insights" Based in Queenstown, New Zealand, Topdown Charts brings you independent research and analysis on global macro themes and trends. Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus. We are not bound by technical or fundamental dogma, and instead look to leverage any relevant factor to capture the theme. As such, here you will find some posts that are purely technical strategy, some that just cover economics and data, and some posts that use multiple inputs to tell the story and identify the opportunities. Callum Thomas Head of Research Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts. He previously worked in investment strategy and asset allocation at AMP Capital in the Multi-Asset division. Callum has a passion for global macro investing and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to utilise a blend of factors to inform the macro view.