2017 People’s Choice Charts

Last week we published the 2017 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report, a summary of some of the best, worst, and most notable charts of 2017 (and the ones to watch in 2018).  This article brings you a look at an interesting section of the report: “The 2017 People’s Choice Charts”, and follows on from the 5 Charts for the Silly Season article.  In this post we look at the 5 most popular charts we tweeted this year as ranked by views and engagement.  I’m sure you along with our Twitter followers will find the charts interesting and insightful – of course if you think we missed one that you think should be included please let us know in the comments or get in contact.

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  1. First is the alternative volatility metric for the S&P500 (rolling 252-day count of daily moves greater than +/-1%), punchline is this measure of volatility has fallen to a 50-year low!

S&P 500 seasonality

  1. Next is a look at S&P 500 seasonality – that red line actually managed to defy gravity and avoid the Sep/Oct lull with a close-to straight-line rally through much of the year.

S&P 500 seasonality

  1. S&P again, this time the 600 (small caps) and the 100 (large caps). By this, small caps look expensive in both absolute and relative terms.

S&P 500 seasonality

  1. One of the classics (could have easily put this in the favourites section) IMF PPP measures show Emerging & Developing economies now account for the dominant share of world GDP.

S&P 500 seasonality

  1. And a similar chart, but a big contrast, emerging market equities account for around 15% of global equity market cap, which is interesting compared to ~55% for GDP share.

S&P 500 seasonality

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Article by Callum Thomas, Top Down Charts




About the Author

Top Down Charts
Topdown Charts: "chart driven macro insights" Based in Queenstown, New Zealand, Topdown Charts brings you independent research and analysis on global macro themes and trends. Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus. We are not bound by technical or fundamental dogma, and instead look to leverage any relevant factor to capture the theme. As such, here you will find some posts that are purely technical strategy, some that just cover economics and data, and some posts that use multiple inputs to tell the story and identify the opportunities. Callum Thomas Head of Research Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts. He previously worked in investment strategy and asset allocation at AMP Capital in the Multi-Asset division. Callum has a passion for global macro investing and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to utilise a blend of factors to inform the macro view.