India Growing Twice as Fast as China

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

Watch the video with Andrew Stotz or read a summary below. This post focuses on economic and population basics of five select markets in Asia.

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Majority of Countries in Asia Have Room to Grow GDP per Capita before Their Populations’ Age

Tiny Singapore and Hong Kong have the highest per capita GDP

  • China’s per capita GDP is impressive given size
  • India has opportunity to expand per capita GDP for decades
  • Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have big population

India Growing Twice as Fast as China

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • India is growing twice as fast as China
  • Above average growth in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Philippines
  • Korea and Thailand have the slowest growth
  • In Japan, population is shrinking

Youth Will Soon Drive India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Lost Youth in Thailand

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • China has the largest labor force, but India has more young people about to join
  • Japan has the largest percentage of old folks
  • Relatively rich Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore are all facing aging population
  • Less rich Thailand is at risk

India, Pakistan, and the Philippines Have an Abundance of Youth

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Thailand and Vietnam now have the largest share of the population in working age
  • However, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines have a large share of young dependents to join the labor force in the future

Thailand and Vietnam Are Facing Aging Population

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Thailand and Vietnam are getting old, but not rich
  • Unlike Japan which got rich and then old, moving its per capita GDP to a recent USD39,000
  • Thailand only recently hit USD6,000, while Vietnam is at USD2,200

Banking Issues Faced by Both India and Pakistan with about a 10% NPL Ratio

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Philippine banking sector is in the best shape
  • High, but stable non-performing loans in Pakistan
  • India’s bad loans are rising fast

Only Thailand Is a Major Exporter

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

The Philippines has recently become very dependent on imports and has not matched that with exports or re-exports of imported products

Inflation and Unemployment Rate Are Very Low in Thailand

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Thailand has very low inflation and unemployment rate, Vietnam has low as well
  • India has the highest inflation at almost 5%
  • Pakistan and the Philippines have relatively high unemployment

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About the Author

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA
Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA is the CEO of A. Stotz Investment Research, a company providing institutional investors with ready-to- invest portfolios in Asia that aim to beat the benchmark through superior stock selection. The company also provides buy- and sell-side clients with financial models to value any company in the world and World Class Benchmarking to determine what companies are financially world class. Previously, as Head of Research at CLSA, Andrew was voted No. 1 Analyst in Thailand in the Asiamoney Brokers Polls for 2008 and 2009. He was also voted No. 1 Analyst in Thailand in the 2009 Institutional Investor magazine All-Asia Research Team Report. Andrew earned his PhD in finance at the University of Science and Technology of China in Anhui province, with a focus on answering questions raised by fund managers and analysts during his career about picking stocks and managing portfolios. In addition, Andrew has been a lecturer in finance for 22 years at various universities in Thailand. Since 2013, he has been the president of the CFA Society of Thailand. He is also the author of How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market.

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