Today’s jobs report showed a loss of US jobs. This is but hurricane induced a blipa All the underlying data continues to support a growing economy and thus equity markets.
- Q3 2017 Hedge fund letters, conferences, interviews, features etc
- Hailed by many the “Next Warren Buffett”, some are calling a bluff
- Baupost Letter Points To Concern Over Risk Parity, Systematic Strategies During Crisis
- Public Pension Situation Is As Bad As You Think: Moody’s
The Household Survey Employment report rose by 906,000 and Light Weight Vehicle sales spiked to a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of 18.57mil. While there is some distortion due to the impact of recent hurricane damage which will be likely moderated in future reports, the long-term economic trends beginning in 2009 should be viewed as intact. I prefer to use the Household Survey as it is the best method to capture the level of those who are self-employed which is not captured by other measures. The Household Survey data is not backwards-adjusted and its month to month volatility reflects the statistical nature of the error band inherent in economic data collection which is in the range of +/- 385,000 on 154,345,000 or 2%-3%. The Establishment Survey by comparison reports employment from companies with official payrolls with frequent revisions to past month’s data. This month’s report showed a decline of 33,000 in reported employment for Sept 2017.
For investors, there is nothing in these reports to undermine expectations for economic expansion and higher equity markets.