This Rocky Stock Market Requires An All-Terrain Portfolio

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The bulk of U.S. stock gains in this long-running bull market are due to one variable: the expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio.

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Earnings for S&P 500 companies have stagnated since 2014. Stock prices have gone up because the Federal Reserve and other central banks have squeezed all investors to the same side of the risk curve. Stocks, especially high-quality ones that pay dividends, are regarded as bond substitutes. Investors now look at the dividends of those stocks and compare those yields to what they can earn in, say, 10-year Treasurys. This strategy will end in tears, as these bond-substitute stocks are significantly overvalued.

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Investors globally are facing major obstacles nowadays. These include:

  • The risk of lower or negative global economic growth.
  • Inflation (high interest-rates), deflation (low interest rates) or a combination of the two (higher interest-rates and deflation).

We don’t know which of these extremes are going to show up, or in which order. Despite their eloquence and portrayed confidence, financial commentators arguing one or another extreme point of view don’t know either. In fact, the more confident they are, the more dangerous they are. Nobody knows.

What’s really called for is an “I don’t know” portfolio that can handle extremes.

As investors today we feel something like a traveler preparing to drive across an unknown continent. A look in the rearview mirror tells us we should pick a sports car, and if the road continues to be as it has been, then our trip may be fast and uneventful. But what if the road that lies ahead is rocky, full of potholes, and maybe strewn with giant boulders?

A sports car will not get past the potholes. What we need is a four-wheel-drive, all-terrain vehicle. This monster will not have the speed or the sex appeal of the shiny red convertible, but it will complete the journey. Its position at the finish line will depend entirely on one unknown — the road ahead. If it is a smooth, unbroken route, then our Land Cruiser will be left in the dust by the Ferraris and Maseratis.

But if my prediction is correct, you’re going to be mighty glad to have four-wheel drive — you might even end up at the head of the pack.

On the surface, the U.S. and global economies appear to be growing, and though growth has been slow, it has been steady. My concern is that demand for goods has been highly inorganic, engendered by central bankers’ quantitative easing and government’s unsustainable budget deficits.

This is a time for investors to show humility and patience. Humility, because saying the words “I don’t know” is difficult for us money manager types.

Patience, because most assets today are priced for perfection. They are priced for a confluence of two outcomes: low (or negative) interest rates continuing at current levels or declining further, and above-average global economic growth.

Both happening at once is extremely unlikely. Take one away, and stock market indexes are overvalued somewhere between a lot and humongously. (I won’t even try to quantify superlatives.)

So, how does one invest in this overvalued market? Our strategy is spelled out in this fairly lengthy article.


Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of Active Value Investing (Wiley) and The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley).

His books were translated into eight languages. Forbes Magazine called him "The new Benjamin Graham". To receive Vitaliy’s future articles by email or read his articles click here.

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I was born and raised in Murmansk, Russia (the home for Russia’s northern navy fleet, think Tom Clancy’s Red October). I immigrated to the US from Russia in 1991 with all my family – my three brothers, my father, and my stepmother. (Here is a link to a more detailed story of how my family emigrated from Russia.) My professional career is easily described in one sentence: I invest, I educate, I write, and I could not dream of doing anything else. Here is a slightly more detailed curriculum vitae: I am Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates, Inc (IMA), a value investment firm based in Denver, Colorado. After I received my graduate and undergraduate degrees in finance (cum laude, but who cares) from the University of Colorado at Denver, and finished my CFA designation (three years of my life that are a vague recollection at this point), I wanted to keep learning. I figured the best way to learn is to teach. At first I taught an undergraduate class at the University of Colorado at Denver and later a graduate investment class at the same university that I designed based on my day job. Currently I am on sabbatical from teaching for a while. I found that the university classroom was not big enough for me, so I started writing and, let’s be honest, I needed to let my genetically embedded Russian sarcasm out. I’ve written articles for the Financial Times, Barron’s, BusinessWeek, Christian Science Monitor, New York Post, Institutional Investor … and the list goes on. I was profiled in Barron’s, and have been interviewed by Value Investor Insight, [email protected], BusinessWeek, BNN, CNBC, and countless radio shows. Finally, my biggest achievement – well actually second biggest; I count quitting smoking in 1992 as the biggest – I’ve authored the Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley, 2010) and Active Value Investing (Wiley, 2007).