UK Elections 2017 Labour Party vs. Tories / Conservatives – Live Coverage. All times mentioned below are in PM EST (6/8/2017) unless stated otherwise.
10:35 – Source Research states in a research report sent to investors not to panic. They opine:
Our models suggest a small majority for the Conservatives of 10-20.
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That would suggest little change from the existing situation and would undermine Theresa May in both the UK and Europe. Brexit negotiations would be more difficult with the risk of a hard Brexit. That could damage the UK economy and sterling.
10:05 – The disaster continues for May who is being attacked on all sides. The forecast is now for 322 seats for the Tories and 261 for Labour Party. However, at this rate who knows who will be PM or who will get majority. May will probably step down it seems – so Tories will need to strike a deal with someone and there is already talk of another election.. Corbyn got a big turnout of the youth vote. Labour just won in Suffolk which is complete Tories territory.
8:38 Get ready for a shock. According to BetFair is now favored to be the next prime minister of the country! No one expected that. Again, these are just gambling odds but Corbyn is building significant moment and the impossible looks possible now. See a screenshot below.
8:30 – It is looking bad for the Tories, the Labour Party is doing much better than expected and even doing well in some unexpected areas like Redding? 29/650 seats declared – still everyone experts the Conservatives to be the largest party, but Corbyn is even taking share from former UKIP voters. Current projection is 314 for Tories to 264 for Labour. But Labour may be able to form a minority government, according to the party’s shadow foreign secretary.
6:50 Sunderland Central 25k for Labour Party, while Conservatives get 15k – this is another Labour win, but Tories were up 10% compared to 2015? poaching some UKIP votes. Also check below we added some live video feeds from Sky News, ITV, and RT. For some reason BBC is not available, but we have text highlights of all the UK elections coverage so you do not need to watch the boring hours of analysis.
6:40 We should have noted earlier there are 650 seats so if things hold Tories will be 11 seats short of a majority and (it looks right now like they will) not be able to form a coalition with other parties. Again it is early in the night, and things can change a lot especially with only two seats actually declared, so stay tuned with us as we are going late and will be updating the latest pound moves and Asian markets soon.
Side point: Recently, I read an incredible book by one of my favorite authors, Lynne Olson. If you want insight into how UK politics work (or at least did in the late 1930s and 1940s) then check out Troublesome Young Men, she also has a new book out on Last Hope Island (which I just finished).
Current UK parliament composition below.
6:28 – It still appears that it is 314 Tories and 266 Labour Party. May is supposedly shocked at the results and had expected at 60 plus seat majority. What went wrong? Sky News says it seemed that the campaign was run as a Presidential campaign. Many in Conservative party want her out and Boris Johnson is rising in betting markets to be the next leader.
Right now the pound is down about 1.7 percent on heightened uncertainty.
Chart below of projections on UK parliament majority from The Express (published BEFORE today).
6:20PM EST Heads could roll at Conservative headquarters. Many are going to question why May called for this vote and whether she should continue to lead the party. There are talks of Boris Johnson taking over the party. Right now the Labour party is saying that there will be no talks of coalition with the Tories. Below is a quick video explaining how the UK elections work for all of you (us) non Brits.
6:07PM EST: Sunderland South 12k for Tories, UKIP about 8K, Labour 24k. It looks like UKIP vote is going down in this election. UKIP says they are only concerned about Brexit and are not happy with this election since it is jeopardizing this.
6:00PM EST Labour has won in NewCastle 24,000 to 9,000 Tories and UKIP with 4K. And they beat out Sunderland South by announcing. Sunderland central: Turnout: 67% Lib Dems: 1,812 Conservative: 9,134 UKIP: 1,482 Labour: 24,071 Green: 595
Tories did gain some votes in Newcastle but they hoped to take a lot more from UKIP so this looks to be in line with exit polls.
5:47PM EST Results from districts of Houghton & Sunderland South are coming in any moment this is going to be big – the Telegraph reports that turnout was up big from 2015. Right now the British pound is tanking and members of the Tory part are said to be disappointed with the results. It looks like it will be a long night, so stay tuned.
5:15PM EST The exit polls have tended to be far more accurate in the UK compared to the exit polls. Below is an actual ballot filed out in the elections today. May had expected a monster mandate so we still need to see how good or bad the results are for the Tories. The question is how bad it is for May.
5:10PM EST There could be a hung Parliment since it would be hard for the Tories to coalition with anyone else for a majority. That is at least the initial results and the Labour Party supporters look very happy from the initial results. We will have some more but look at our schedule above to see how the timeline goes. This could be the end of Brexit.
5:02PM EST The exit polls just came out and it looks like a Tory win although perhaps not as big as some predicted. May may fall short of a majority, which is going to be a problem for the Tories. Exit poll- tories 314, labour 266, LDem: 14, UKIP zero, Green 1, Plaid 3, snp 34, Other 18
That will be the story for the markets and it is cause the spike on Euro versus the British pound.
Here is the live streaming video of UK elections 2017:
Below was our pre-coverage – stay tuned with us starting at around 6PM EST for live coverage for results of the UK elections.
The UK elections are tonight and the stakes could not be higher. The question is what the heck is going on? On the one hand, we had recent polls showing that the Tories would win by a massive landslide almost reminiscent of the days of Stanley Baldwin. On the other hand, many recent polls have shown an extremely close race between the Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Tories lead by Jeremy Corby? Who is right? I have no idea but unlike Brexit we will have live coverage since there could be a political and financial shock.
I had noted before Brexit that I had no clue why the markets and media were so certain of a no passing as the polls had been very tight. I stated before the elections the following among other things similar:
I also had no idea why people were SO SURE remain would win when the margins were so close – look like the experts were over-confident once again – shocker.
Indeed, yes one and the immediate reaction was a crash of the Pound and many other “non safe haven” assets, while risky ones soared. Therefore, we are bringing you live coverage and some pre-coverage to ensure we are not caught off guard like the rest of the pundits. Anyway, let us start with the schedule before we get into the politics of Theresa May vs Jeremy Corbyn.
So will we have a repeat of Brexit or Trump (in this case the “radical” and unexpected being a victory by Jeremy Corbyn)?
Analysts at Berenberg opined in a note last week:
The trends in the opinion polls in the past few weeks have come as a surprise. One month ago, major pollsters put Theresa May’s Conservatives at a little over 20 points ahead of far-left Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. At that time, we put the chance of a Conservative win at 80%. But the Conservatives’ lead has more than halved in recent polls . While a Tory majority remains our base case for the UK election on 8 June, we now put a 65% probability on it, with a 25% chance of a hung parliament and a 10% chance of a Labour majority.
While all the polls still project that the Conservatives will be ahead on 8 June, the sharp recent reduction in the party’s lead, poor poll reliability in past votes, plus an unusually high level of uncertainty about the key issues and how different groups could vote, make this election tricky to call. To put it one way, we would not be very surprised if there was surprise!
Here is the schedule for UK elections – note we are on EST which is five ours behind BST – the schedule below is in BST
June 22:00 (BST) – Release of the exit polls – usually a decent indicator of largest party.
22:50 – Get results from districts of Houghton & Sunderland South.
23:00 to Midnight – Sunderland Central and Washington & Sunderland West.
0:00 to 01:00 – One or two more seats declaring.
01:00 to 02:00 – Roughly 10 or so seats. Tooting the marginal to watch.
02:00 to 03:00 – 50 more seats. Darlington the marginal to watch.
03:00 to 04:00 – 190 seats declared by this point.
05:00 to 06:00 – 450 seats by this point, unless it is within a 10-seat difference we should know who has won.
would we be still hanging on at this point.
11:00 – Final swing seat.
15:00 – Typically when you have the final reporting seat.
So what are the implications – at least according to the pundits? Most analysts at banks are expecting a decisive victory for Theresa May over Jeremy Corbyn.
UK elections: Analyst forecasts victory for the Tories
Over the past six weeks, the Conservative party’s large lead in the polls has fallen dramatically, so much so that a Survation poll on Monday had the Labour party only one percentage point behind. Intriguingly, the move we are seeing is not too dissimilar to the one that occurred in the run up to the US Presidential election in November. Nonetheless, the polls still generally suggest an increased Conservative majority, and we therefore see this scenario as being broadly neutral to marginally positive for the UK equity market over the very short-term.
We also would look to fade GBP rallies in the base case scenario of a comfortable Tory majority in the UK elections, as Brexit negotiations and structural economic headwinds loom.
suppose one of the surprising features of this election is that if the polls* are to be believed (not a given clearly), then the UK will go back to a 2-party state again. Current polling puts the combined support for the two main parties at around 80%. The last three elections have seen combined support between 65-68%. In the 11 eleven elections since 1974, only 1979 (80.8%) saw it above 80%. Between 1945-1970 it was between 87-97%. Across the developed world there has generally been a fragmentation of politics in recent years, especially in Europe after the financial crisis, with lots of populist movements forming and taking votes away from the establishment.
The UK will hold a general election this Thursday, June 8. Our UK economist expects the Conservative Party to win the election and obtain an increased majority relative to before the election. In our economist’s view the main consequence will be to help facilitate (but not guarantee) a smoother Brexit as our economist thinks a larger conservative majority increases the likelihood of securing transitional arrangements and fully implementing Brexit; a larger majority should enable Prime Minister May increased flexibility to compromise with the EU-27, despite opposition from the Eurosceptics within her own party.