Pandora Media (P) Short Thesis Update

Danger Zone Pick, Pandora Media (P: $9.50/share), down 18% since publish date (S&P up 1% over same time), recently announced it is looking into “strategic alternatives, including a possible sale.” With this news, the “stupid money risk” looms large.

When we published our Danger Zone report, we noted that Pandora was not a particularly attractive acquisition target, largely due to its negative margins, smaller paid user base, lack of competitive advantage, and high valuation. However, with the company announcing it would be open to an acquisition, firms such as Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), or even Verizon (VZ) could view Pandora as a means to quickly bundle music streaming into existing services.

Pandora still earns a Dangerous rating. The company earns a bottom-quintile return on invested capital (ROIC) of -30% and its NOPAT margins sit at -23%. In many ways, Pandora’s decision could be a last gasp to stay alive. Accordingly, we think the downside risk here is diminished and are closing this position.

This Tiger Cub Giant Is Betting On Banks And Tech Stocks In The Recovery

D1 CapitalThe first two months of the third quarter were the best months for D1 Capital Partners' public portfolio since inception, that's according to a copy of the firm's August update, which ValueWalk has been able to review. Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more According to the update, D1's public portfolio returned 20.1% gross Read More

We hope investors were able to avoid a portfolio blowup or even participate in the 18% fall in the stock price since we placed it in the Danger Zone.

This article originally published on May 9, 2017.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II and Kenneth James receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.