Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine is now speaking at the Sohn Conference. While his background is in credit, Gundlach tends to cover the full map in his always entertaining talks so only time will tell what he discusses. Politics? Equities? Macro? Short ideas? All of the above? Stay tuned to find the answer to that question. Last time we covered Jeff Gundlach he was recommending that investors be wary of investing in close ended funds (CEFs) right now.
ValueWalk readers can find ALL our Sohn coverage at this post so you do not need to search around the site (although feel free to do so)
Jeff Gundlach at Sohn 2017 Conference below
Presenter notes notable past Sohn moments like Lehman, financial crisis in 07 or 08, and when Gundlach predicted Donald Trump would win last year in May. Gundlach predicted that Trump would win as early as January 2017 and he told investors to prepare for that. This is why people spend the money and time to come to this conference. Speaker spoke to big bond investor and asked if Jeff Gundlach is Warren Buffett of bonds? The investor said the question is really is Warren Buffett the Jeff Gundlach of equities?!
Gundlach starts with picture of first World War drawing/painting.
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— Julia La Roche (@SallyPancakes) May 8, 2017
Jeff quotes the painter and compares it to US equity long managers of 2017. Gundlach talks about how on the other hand passive are having a great run.
Passive investing is a myth just like cash out refi – that is buying a new house without moving. Gundlach notes the S&P 500 has no rigid rules and has an index committee which makes it an active fund. The author of this blog is S&P 500 index committee member! The index committee have good managers as Bill Miller said.
Max Beckmann was interesting in Nietzsche who discussed eternal return that everything is recurring an infinite number of times.
Nietzsche says woman was God’s second mistake, which implies it was man.
Gundlach says he has shunned social media but opened a twitter account here-> Truth Gundlach
There are real distortions because of index funds – US was 15% of global market cap in times of Nietzsche now US is 53% market cap even though its only 24% of global GDP which shows valuations in US might be distorted.
This all has never been higher since dot com bubble and there is not much upside.
Jeff Gundlach likes emerging markets over America – and he shows the following chart with trendlines pointing to outperformance.
EM got to watch out for dollar in EM.
So what does one do? Long eem and short spy and leverage 1x like last year where we had 1x leverage and had 40% return.
Max died day after he finished his painting only 500 feet from where we are speaking so give money to Ira Sohn Foundation.
Jeff Gundlach Sohn slides can be found below.