During recent weeks, much of the punditry has suggested a sharp difference between “hard” and “soft” data. The former seems to show sluggish economic growth while the latter paints a more optimistic picture. The general distinction seems to be that surveys are “soft” and other data are “hard.” Results are rather arbitrarily placed in one group or the other.
Test Your Hard Data IQ?
Since reliance on surveys seems to be the acid test, let’s try a little quiz. Which of the following reports use surveys, and which do not?
- Payroll jobs
- ISM manufacturing index
- Wholesale inventories
- Retail sales
- Unemployment rate
- Labor participation rate
- PPI
- ISM non-manufacturing index
- Consumer confidence or sentiment
- Business optimism
- Durable goods orders
- New home sales
- CPI
- Building permits
- Personal income and spending
- The decennial census of U.S. population
- Existing home sales
- JOLTS report
- Business inventories
- Housing starts
- Regional Fed indexes – Chicago, Empire State, Philly Fed, Dallas, etc.
Before going on, please make sure that you have indicated “survey” or “non-survey” for each of the reports above.
Criticism of Survey Data
Most of the survey critics dismiss such data as “soft” and undependable. This is often an assertion that surveys always involve speculation about future behavior. Without exception, the survey critics do not include anyone who has actually designed or administered a survey. A real expert would know that most of the complaints are treated on day one of the methods class.
Please consider this obvious example. Suppose we ask someone, a month before an election, for whom they intend to vote. Now suppose we ask in an exit poll. The respondent might still give an inaccurate answer in the latter, but logic suggests it will be more accurate than the first. Logic is confirmed by results.
Try this example. We ask a purchasing manager if he/she is ordering more this month than last. Or if prices paid were higher? It does not involve speculation – just an honest report of facts. Suppose we ask a Chinese purchasing manager the same question. Are we just as confident of the answer?
Many questions are carefully worded to make it easy to give an honest answer. It is a technique taught in the classes. Most of the critics have never looked at the actual underlying surveys or considered the issues.
Quiz Answer
All the reports listed above involve the use of surveys. All of them.
Many pundits pick and choose data to support their viewpoints. The “hard versus soft” meme is the latest such effort. Here is a test. The choice of classification has been very loose and arbitrary. Despite this, it has been taken seriously by nearly everyone.
We have seen many new fans of the Atlanta GDP Now tracking. It showed weak growth in the first quarter. During the second quarter the early returns are 3.5% to 4%. Many sources will react by finding a new favorite indicator.
Investment Conclusion
The economy has a better footing than most sources allege.
Your decisions will be better if you rely upon sources that are intellectually honest in the consistent use of data.
Article by Dash Of Insight
