BlackBerry stock (BBRY) has had a strong run since August 2016, but one analyst has decided that enough is enough. The shares are finally approaching levels not observed in four years, with the most recent run coming from the patent win against Qualcomm. Multiple firms boosted their price targets for BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY) after the win was first announced last month.

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BlackBerry stock (BBRY) downgraded by Raymond James

In a research note dated May 29, Raymond James analyst Steven Li downgraded BlackBerry stock from Outperform to Market Perform but boosted his price target from US$9.50 to US$11 per share. He said the firm’s shares were up by more than 40% since his August 2016 upgrade through yesterday, compared to the NASDAQ’s more than 19% gain over the same timeframe.

He raised his price target for BlackBerry stock (BBRY) to account from the final arbitration award from Qualcomm. He also accounted for the dilution caused by the conversion of the debentures, but he felt a downgrade was appropriate because of the limited return to his updated price target. Based on BlackBerry’s closing price on Friday, his new sum-of-the-parts estimate implies that the company’s Software business is trading at around 15 times fiscal 2020/ calendar 2019 estimated EBITDA. He says that’s in line with a “group of software comparables” he examines.

BlackBerry stock (BBRY) boosted by Qualcomm award

BlackBerry said on Friday that the final ruling in the Qualcomm case was ordered and set at $940 million, which includes interest and attorneys’ fees. The chip maker is to pay that sum by tomorrow. Li expects “minimal taxes” on the award, so it should “boost an already strong balance sheet.” After the Qualcomm award, BlackBerry should have about $2.6 billion in cash or $2 billion in net cash. He believes the company could spend some of that cash on mergers and acquisitions to speed up its strategy.

He added that the path to $1 billion in annual Software revenues is now a bit clearer but added that his estimates are more conservative than those of BlackBerry management. He will continue to watch the company’s Mobility Solutions licensing revenues, noting that it has three major licenses for its smartphone brand so far. BB Merah Putih has released the BlackBerry Aurora under the license, and he’s expecting royalties of about $5 per handset.

BlackBerry to be driven by QNX

QNX is also a key part of the Canadian firm’s strategy, and Li notes that anything which affects sentiment around it could be a catalyst. He noted that BlackBerry claims that QNX holds more than 50% of the automotive infotainment OS market, but he doesn’t feel this is sustainable given the gains by embedded Android. As such, he expects the company’s share of the market to fall to 35%.

However, Macquarie Capital analyst Gus Papageorgiou recently argued that BlackBerry stock (BBRY) is heading to US$45 in three years, riding on QNX. He told CBC News in an interview recently that the business is “highly recurring software business with high margins,” and he sees potential.

Papageorgiou also talked up BlackBerry’s new Radar product. He stated that some of the earliest customers are reporting that the product has reduced the number of trailers they need by 17% and given them chances to charge customers to keep their trailers too long. Between QNX and Radar, he sees $2 billion or more in software revenues in three years, resulting in $1.80 per share in earnings. Assuming a PE multiple of 25, he reaches $45 per share. For now, his 12-month price target for BlackBerry stock is US$11.80.

BlackBerry stock (BBRY) fell by as much as 3.42% to $10.73 during regular trading hours on the NASDAQ today.