Risk assets continued their relentless post-election march during the first two months of 2017. Buoyed by the selloff in the US dollar, emerging markets bested global markets in both US dollar and local currency terms. The Eurozone was a close second outperforming both the U.S. and the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) in local currency terms. Japanese equities, however, halted their Q4 2016 gallop with a negative absolute return. On the sector front, tech came out on top consistently across regions while reports of elevated inventories as well as an unwinding of extreme net long positioning among both commercial and non-commercial traders led to negative energy sector performance. Health care, consumer discretionary and consumer staples outperformed the broad market, while financials, materials and telecom services trailed the MSCI ACWI.
Our Q1 Outlook entitled “Who Knows? Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns” pinpointed risks to the seemingly un-bridled bullish consensus undergirded by hopes that the Trump Administration would roll back Obamacare, financial and en-ergy regulation and re-open fiscal spigots through a combina-tion of tax reform and infrastructure spending. Indeed, since early March, some of the risks discussed in the paper began to challenge this consensus. Accordingly, the S&P 500 has fallen by 1.8% after hitting a record high on March 1st. Treasury yields have also backed off their highs and credit spreads have wid-ened modestly. As shown in TABLE 1 on the next page, many of the assumed post-election winners, such as higher tax bracket small cap stocks and financials (that would be expected to ben-efit from a roll-back of Dodd Frank) underperformed after the new President was inaugurated. Healthcare facilities rebound-ed, suggesting that many investors see failure of Obamacare replacement legislation as threatening the broader Republican agenda.
While this recent retreat in risk assets has led some investors to question the sustainability of the reflation trade, we simply view it as a pause which right-sets the overly ambitious expec-tations around both the scope, pace and effectiveness of the new administration’s market friendly policies. The real story is that global equities are being supported by strengthening eco-nomic data. (See CHART 1). This improving macro-economic backdrop is leading to more positive earnings revisions across the board. Indeed, only in the Emerging Markets do negative earnings revisions exceed positive revisions and even there, the ratio has been improving. (See CHART 2). For Q2, we continue to overweight European and Japanese equities at the expense of U.S. equities; while we are neutral to EM equities. Within the U.S. portfolio we are overweight value and smaller names in light of better entry points presented by their Q1 slide.
Our sector positioning remains pro-cyclical, with the largest overweight in the Financial sector. However, our tactical models also call for an overweight to the more defensive Healthcare and Telecomm sectors. (Please refer to TABLE 2 and TABLE 3 on PAGES 3-5 for our sector and regional positioning). A scorecard on our Q1 positions is provided on TABLE 4 on PAGE 5. While we believe that, particularly against the Japanese Yen and commodity exposed EM currencies, the dollar bull run has more legs to go, we are reducing our hedge against the Euro which as discussed in the special section analyzing the likely path of the U.S. dollar (PAGES 8-9), is the most likely candidate to stabilize against the greenback. In recognition of China’s growing importance within the Capital markets, we briefly discuss the impact of the inclusion of some China A shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index on PAGE 10.
Policy expectations and synchronized global growth will continue to be the biggest themes in the market this year. In addition to being more expensive than the rest of the world, U.S. company earnings also appear vulnerable, absent a major pick-up in pricing power or a favorable policy outcome (such as corporate tax reduction). For example, CHART 3 suggests that almost all the earnings improvement last year reflected a pick-up in inflation; as profits adjusted for inflation have declined since 2015.
A recent article by the Wall Street Journal noted that while the U.S. equity market is not yet repeating the 2000 equity bubble or 2007 debt bubble, it has some of the worst features of both. For one, U.S. companies have loaded up on debt on the assumption that economic growth will continue to be slow and steady. Therefore, rather than expanding overall profit, companies have been boosting return to shareholders by replacing equity with debt. Consequently, the ratio of debt to operating cash flow of highest-quality US companies is just slightly down from a re-cord reached last year. Secondly, while valuations are not yet at nose-bleed levels there are pockets of incredulity. The article pointed to TSLA, which is trading at a sky-high valuation justified by the hope that an untested product (in this case, mass-market electric cars) will generate big profits.
Moreover, while late cycle pricing power can lift corporate sales and margins, the corollary increase in wage pressures and inter-est rates can also threaten earnings, particularly considering the Trump Administration’s rhetorical pressures to dissuade American corporations from outsourcing labor to cheaper locations. As previously discussed, corporate tax reform and legislative relief would structurally support earnings. In theory, the legislative obstacles for such policies should be easier to overcome than with the controversial health care bill; but the fissures within the Republican Party suggest another protracted display of legislative wrangling and raise the probability of a less ambitious policy outcome.
The path of the U.S. dollar will also be critical in determining the year’s winners and losers. For one, currency trends will dictate how global growth is redistributed. For two, the feedback loop between the dollar and inflation could once again modify the pace at which the Fed tightens. A strong U.S. dollar, supported by perceived shifts in Fed policy, will import deflationary pres-sures into the U.S., undermining global-exposed sectors, such as Consumer Staples and Technology. (See CHART 4). A strong U.S. dollar is also typically negatively correlated to commodity prices and EM risk assets. For this reason, the balance of our Outlook is devoted to the U.S. dollar and its relationship with other major countries.
As discussed in our Q1 Outlook, there is substantial consensus that monetary policy divergence will continue to support the U.S. dollar; particularly considering that Fed continued to hike interest rates this year. We are sympathetic to this view and believe that the U.S. dollar is midway through a third secular appreciation (see CHART 5) period, supported by stronger growth in the U.S. than the rest of the world which leads to an advanced monetary policy cycle. In this context, the recent reversal partially represents a technical correction from oversold levels. As shown in CHART 6, the greenback shot well above its 200-day trend line in late 2016/early