Doug Ramsey: “Valuation Tells Me I Should Be Lighter Than Normal On U.S. Equities

Guest: Doug Ramsey. Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund.

In addition to his CIO and Portfolio Management responsibilities heading both the asset allocation and investment strategy committees, Doug maintains the firm’s proprietary Major Trend Index, a multi-factor model which evaluates the underlying health of the markets, both domestically and globally. He is also the lead writer for The Leuthold Group’s highly regarded institutional research publications.

Date Recorded: 2/23/17

Qualivian Investment Partners Up 30% YTD; Long ORLY Thesis

Qualivian Investment PartnersQualivian Investment Partners commentary for the second quarter ended July 30, 2020. Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Short-term investors will accept a 20% gain because they didn’t spend the time to develop the conviction and foresight to see the next 500%.” - Ian Cassell Executive Summary Readers of investment letters fall into Read More


Run-Time: 1:08:06

Topics: In Episode 41, we welcome Doug Ramsey from Leuthold. Meb is especially excited about this, as Leuthold publishes his favorite, monthly research piece, the Green Book.

After getting a recap of Doug’s background, Meb dives in. Given that we’re in the Dow’s second longest bull run in history, Meb asks how Doug sees market valuation right now.

Doug’s response? “Well, that’s a good place to start cause we’ll get the worst news out of the way first…”

As will surprise no one, Doug sees high valuations – believing that trailing earnings-based metrics might actually be underestimating the valuation risk.

This prompts Meb to bring up Leuthold’s “downside risk” tables. In general, they’re showing that we’re about 30% overvalued. Across no measure does it show we’re fairly valued or cheap.

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Links from the Episode:

Leuthold has been kind enough to give listeners of The Meb Faber Show access to selected data from its Green Book Research. All you need to do is follow the link below and register to enable free access.

http://meb.leutholdgroup.com/

By Meb Faber, read the transcript here.