This Time Is Different

This Time Is Different
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Though attempting to time the market is hazardous at best, there is one guide I use – the notion that “This time is different.”  I take this as a guide because in my view it virtually never is.  In the depths of the depression and the during the crash of 2008/2009, many people thought the world had changed for the worse.  In 2000, it was the reverse – the world was changing for the better.  In retrospect, it was not changing very much at all.  From my standpoint, it is reasonable to be wary about the Trump rally for the same reason.  Rationalizing the high current level of stock prices because President Trump is going to deliver to a new world of tax reform and reduced regulation is an exercise in what I believe is undue optimism.  The status quo is much stronger than most people give it credit for.  So when you hear, the phrase “this time is different” the best reaction is generally no its not.  And the best investment advice as well.

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Article by Brad Cornell

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Bradford Cornell is an emeritus Professor of Financial Economics at the Anderson School of Management at UCLA. Prof. Cornell has taught courses on Applied Corporate Finance, Investment Banking, and Corporate Valuation. He is currently developing a new course on Climate Change, Energy and Finance. Professor Cornell has published more than 125 articles and four books on a wide variety of topics in applied finance. Professor Cornell is also a managing director at BRG where he heads the practice on Climate Change, Energy and Finance. In addition, he is a senior advisor to the Cornell Capital Group and to Rayliant Global Advisors. In both capacities, he provides advice on fundamental investment valuation.
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