For those that track the economy and are deeply interested in where the US is headed, Dr. Alan Beaulieu, President of ITR Economics, has good news and bad news.
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The good news is that the US is unlikely to see another recession until around 2019. He told listeners that back in 2015 and reiterated that outlook again on our show just recently based on their economic forecasting models.
The bad news is that the US (and the world) is likely to slip into another Great Depression in a little over a decade around the 2030 timeframe.
Co-author of Prosperity in an Age of Decline, Dr. Beaulieu and his firm have proven prescient over the last few years, foreseeing a strong economy and sticking to their call even while many feared the odds for a recession had greatly increased heading into 2016.
When it came to the US stock market, Alan explained that their outlook for corporate earnings and how that translates to the market as a whole is largely dependent on the strength of the underlying economy and not on political factors. In that case, the “Trump rally,” as most refer to what took place after November 8th, was just as much a story about leading economic data, which turned positive earlier in the year, than it was about President Trump being elected.
Had Hillary been elected instead, their outlook, based on where we are in the economic cycle, would have been the same, Beaulieu noted.
“It’s the economy. It comes down to that,” he said. “The economy of the United States is fundamentally healthy and…things are going well in this country apart from politics, not because of politics.”
Beaulieu believes that inflationary pressures will lead up to the 2019 recession and that investors and businesses should position themselves accordingly.
Looking out longer-term, Beaulieu explained how ITR’s call for a 1930s-style Depression around 2030 is a mathematically-derived forecast based on a number of converging trends: global inflation, healthcare costs, entitlement spending, and a burgeoning national debt.
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