Here is the key concept: Abandon that which is not helpful!
One of my best friends loved “investing” in baseball. He had an opinion about every team and every game. He also had a happy bookie.
He called me after taking a course in baseball betting. He explained that you could improve your results, regardless of your system, but refusing any team that had lost the day before. The course provided the evidence, and it was right. Systems all did worse when recommending losing teams.
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital funds were up 11.9% for 2021, compared to the S&P 500's 28.7% return. Since its inception in May 1996, Greenlight has returned 1,882.6% cumulatively and 12.3% net on an annualized basis. Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The fund was up 18.6% for the fourth quarter, with almost all Read More
I could not resist. I told my friend that if he also passed on all plays involving teams that won they day before, he would have a great system!
Investors flock to websites providing the least helpful information. The writers are making a fortune without ever providing a single constructive or profitable idea! They collect by preying upon your fears and providing confirmation biases for the conclusions you already have reached.
This is a brilliant business model. It is much better than mine, since I must try to explain the contrarian side, provide evidence, and highlight good ideas.
Here is a suggestion for readers hoping for better results:
Review each source you regularly follow. If you cannot find some helpful advice in the last year, cross it off your reading list. If there is not a single stock recommendation that worked, put the site on double-secret probation!
This brief post might be the best piece of investment advice you will ever see. Most will continue their old habits. They love horror stories and lust for confirmation of their biases. You can choose to be different.
Article by Jeff Miller, Dash Of Insight